2025年的互联网将是什么模样

As part of its continuing series on the 'Future of the Internet,' the Pew Research Center asked a group of thinkers in science and technology about what the Internet -- turning 25 years old on Wednesday -- might look like in another 10 years.
在其“互联网的未来”(Future of the Internet)系列调研中，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)调查了一批科学技术领域的思想家，询问他们在3月12日年满25岁的互联网再过10年可能会是什么模样。

Their responses speak of a world that is connected deep within homes and well beyond borders. Pew collected the answers into theses buckets of a hopeful and not-so hopeful future (with some other random ideas ginned up, too).
他们的回答描绘了一个深深扎根家庭、远远跨越国界的互联世界。皮尤研究中心把这些答案归集为“未来有希望”、“未来不太有希望”的两类（还有其他一些随意的想法）。

Pew posed an open-ended question asking for predictions about the role of the Internet in people's lives in 2025, and what impact it will have on social, economic and political processes. 'Good and/or bad, what do you expect to be the most significant overall impacts of our uses of the Internet on humanity between now and 2025?' Pew asked. The group polled researchers, entrepreneurs, writers, developers, advocates and others.
皮尤提了一个开放性的问题，要求被访者预测2025年互联网在人们生活中的作用，以及它对社会、经济和政治进程的影响。这个问题是：“不论好与坏，你预计从现在到2025年，我们对互联网的使用对人类最明显的整体影响将是什么？”皮尤调查的对象有研究人员、企业家、作家、软件开发者、维权人士等。

Here is a selection of responses plucked from the overview of 'Digital Life in 2025.' You can see the entire report with more anecdotes on Pew's site.
以下是选自“2025年的数字生活”(Digital Life in 2025)概述的一组回答。更丰富的报告全文可在皮尤中心的网站上看到。

David Clark , senior research scientist at MIT: 'Devices will more and more have their own patterns of communication, their own 'social networks,' which they use to share and aggregate information, and undertake automatic control and activation. More and more, humans will be in a world in which decisions are being made by an active set of cooperating devices. The Internet (and computer-mediated communication in general) will become more pervasive but less explicit and visible. It will, to some extent, blend into the background of all we do.'
戴维・克拉克(David Clark)，麻省理工学院(MIT)高级研究科学家：终端将越来越多地拥有它们自己的传播形态，它们自己用于分享、汇总信息的“社交网络”，并越来越多地从事自动化控制与激活。人类所处的世界，将越来越多地由一组活跃的、相互配合的终端来做出各种决定。互联网（以及整个以计算机为媒介的传播）将变得更加普遍，但更不明显、更不可见。在某种程度上，它将融入我们所做的一切这个背景当中。

Aron Roberts , software developer at the University of California, Berkeley: 'We may well see wearable devices and/or home and workplace sensors that can help us make ongoing lifestyle changes and provide early detection for disease risks, not just disease. We may literally be able to adjust both medications and lifestyle changes on a day-by-day basis or even an hour-by-hour basis, thus enormously magnifying the effectiveness of an ever more understaffed medical delivery system.'
阿伦・罗伯茨(Aron Roberts)，加州大学伯克利分校(University of California, Berkeley)软件开发员：很有可能出现能够帮助我们持续改变生活方式、及早侦测到疾病风险而不只是疾病的可穿戴设备和/或居家、办公传感器。我们或许真的能够按天、甚至是按小时地调整药物以及生活方式的改变，从而极大地放大一个人员越来越少的医疗服务系统的有效性。

David Hughes , who has four decades of experience in digital communications: 'All 7-plus billion humans on this planet will sooner or later be 'connected' to each other and fixed destinations, via the Uber(not Inter)net. That can lead to the diminished power over people's lives within nation-states. When every person on this planet can reach, and communicate two-way, with every other person on this planet, the power of nation-states to control every human inside its geographic boundaries may start to diminish.'
戴维・休斯(David Hughes)，在数字传播领域拥有40年的经验：地球上的70多亿人口迟早将会通过“Ubernet”（超级网）而非互联网实现相互连接以及与固定目的地的连接。这可能导致民族国家对人们生活的控制力减弱。当地球上每一个人都可以和地球上其他所有人双向接触、沟通时，民族国家控制其地理界线之内每一个人的力量可能就会开始减弱。

Hal Varian , chief economist for Google: 'The biggest impact on the world will be universal access to all human knowledge. The smartest person in the world currently could well be stuck behind a plow in India or China. Enabling that person -- and the millions like him or her -- will have a profound impact on the development of the human race. Cheap mobile devices will be available worldwide, and educational tools like the Khan Academy will be available to everyone. This will have a huge impact on literacy and numeracy and will lead to a more informed and more educated world population.'
哈尔・瓦里安(Hal Varian)，谷歌(Google)首席经济学家：对世界最大的影响将是能够无处不在地获取所有人类知识。目前世界上最聪明的人很有可能是束缚在了印度或中国的一张耕犁后面。把机会赋予这个人──以及像他或她的几百万人──将对人类的发展产生深刻的影响。世界各地都将能够买到廉价手机，每一个人都将能够获得可汗学院(Khan Academy)之类的教育工具。这将对人们的识字算数水平产生巨大的影响，将使世界人口更有知识、更有文化。

Llewellyn Kriel , CEO of TopEditor International Media Services: 'Everything -- every thing -- will be available online with price tags attached. Cyber-terrorism will become commonplace. Privacy and confidentiality of any and all personal will become a thing of the past. Online 'diseases' -- mental, physical, social, addictions (psycho-cyber drugs) -- will affect families and communities and spread willy-nilly across borders. The digital divide will grow and worsen beyond the control of nations or global organizations such as the UN. This will increasingly polarize the planet between haves and have-nots. Global companies will exploit this polarization. Digital criminal networks will become realities of the new frontiers. Terrorism, both by organizations and individuals, will be daily realities. The world will become less and less safe, and only personal skills and insights will protect individuals.'
卢埃林・克里埃尔(Llewellyn Kriel)，TopEditor International Media Services的CEO：所有东西──所有东西──都将在网上明码标价地出售。网络恐怖主义将成为常态。任何人的隐私和机密都将成为过去时。网络“疾病”──精神疾病、生理疾病、社交疾病、毒瘾（心理-网络毒品）──将影响到家庭和社区，并肆无忌惮地跨越国界而扩散。数字鸿沟将会扩大并恶化，超出各个国家以及联合国等国际组织的掌控范围。这将越来越多地造成有产者和无产者之间的两极分化。跨国公司将获利于这种分化。数字犯罪团伙将成为新疆界的现实。不管是组织化的恐怖主义还是个人恐怖主义，都将成为每天都存在的现实。世界将变得越来越不安全，只有自己的技能与见识才能保护个人。