2025年的互联网将是什么模样

Paul Babbitt , an associate professor at Southern Arkansas University: 'Governments will become much more effective in using the Internet as an instrument of political and social control. That is, filters will be increasingly valuable and important, and effective and useful filters will be able to charge for their services. People will be more than happy to trade the free-wheeling aspect common to many Internet sites for more structured and regulated environments.'
保罗・巴比特(Paul Babbitt)，南阿肯色大学(Southern Arkansas University)副教授：在将互联网用作政治和社会控制工具方面，政府的效率将大大提高。也就是说，过滤器将越来越宝贵、越来越重要，有效、有用的过滤器将可以为其服务收费。人们将非常乐意牺牲很多网站随心所欲的方面，换取秩序更加井然、监管更加严格的环境。

Randy Kluver , an associate professor of communication at Texas A&M University: 'The most neglected aspect of the impact is in the geopolitics of the Internet. There are very few experts focused on this, and yet the rise of digital media promises significant disruption to relations between and among states. Some of the really important dimensions include the development of transnational political actors/movements, the rise of the virtual state, the impact of digital diplomacy efforts, the role of information in undermining state privilege (think Wikileaks), and ... the development of cyber-conflict (in both symmetric and asymmetric forms).'
兰迪・克吕弗(Randy Kluver)，德州农工大学(Texas A&M University)传播学副教授：最被人忽略的影响在于互联网的地缘政治方面。关注这方面的专家非常少，但数字媒体的崛起很有可能给国与国关系带来重大波折。一些非常重要的维度包括跨国政治角色/运动的发展，虚拟政府的兴起，数字民主化行动的冲击，信息在削弱政府特权方面的作用（如维基解密(Wikileaks)），以及……网络冲突（包括对称的和非对称的冲突）的发展。

Vint Cerf , Google vice president: 'There will be increased franchise and information sharing. There will be changes to business models to adapt to the economics of digital communication and storage. We may finally get to Internet voting, but only if we have really strong authentication methods available. Privacy must be improved but transparency about what information is retained about users also has to increase. More business will be born online with a global market from the beginning. Massive open online courses will become important revenue streams.'
文特・瑟夫(Vint Cerf)，谷歌副总裁：特许经营和信息共享将会越来越多。商业模式将会改变，以适应数字传播与存储的经济学。最后我们可能会有网络选举，但条件是拥有非常可靠的认证方法。隐私必须得到改进，但有关已获取用户信息的透明度也必须提高。越来越多的企业将是在网上诞生，一开始就瞄准全球市场。大众化网络公开课将成为重要的收入来源。

John Markoff, senior Science writer at the New York Times: 'What happens the first time you answer the phone and hear from your mother or a close friend, but it's actually not, and instead, it's a piece of malware that is designed to social engineer you. What kind of a world will we have crossed over into? I basically began as an Internet utopian (think John Perry Barlow), but I have since realized that the technical and social forces that have been unleashed by the microprocessor hold out the potential of a very dystopian world that is also profoundly inegalitarian. I often find myself thinking, 'Who said it would get better?''
约翰・马尔科夫(John Markoff)，《纽约时报》(New York Times)资深科学撰稿人：当你第一次接电话听到母亲或好友的声音、其实那不是母亲或好友而是一款旨在对你展开社会化工程攻击(social engineering)的恶意软件时，会发生什么事情？我们所跨入的将是一个什么样的世界？最初我基本上是一个对互联网存在乌托邦式幻想的人（想想约翰・佩里・巴洛(John Perry Barlow)），但我后来意识到，微处理器释放的技术力量和社会力量有可能造就一个反面乌托邦的、极不平等的世界。我经常不由自主地想：“谁说世界会越来越好的？”

You can see the entire report with plenty more anecdotes on Pew's site. What do you think the Internet will be like in 10 years -- flowing invisibly in the background like electricity, a tangible and omnipresent part of every day life, something else? Tell us what you think in the comments.
拥有更多丰富细节的报告全文可以在皮尤研究中心的网站上看到。你认为10年过后的互联网会是什么样子的？是像电流一样在幕后无形地流动，还是成为日常生活中看得见摸得着而又无处不在的一部分？还是其他什么样子？请在评论中写下你的想法。