寿命预测技术使老人重新规划人生

THIS weekend, the singer and songwriter Leonard Cohen is celebrating his 80th birthday — with a cigarette. Last year he announced that he would resume smoking when he turned 80. “It’s the right age to recommence,” he explained.
这个周末，歌手兼词曲创作者莱昂纳德·科恩点上一支香烟，庆祝他的80岁生日（9月21日——译注）。去年他宣布，自己打算一到80岁就恢复吸烟。“这是重新开始的好年纪，”他说。

At any age, taking up smoking is not sensible. Both the smoker and those who breathe his secondhand smoke can suffer not only long-term but acute health problems, including infections and asthma. And yet, Mr. Cohen’s plan presents a provocative question: When should we set aside a life lived for the future and, instead, embrace the pleasures of the present?
吸烟在任何年纪都是不明智的。吸烟者和那些吸二手烟的人都会出现健康问题，既有长期的，也有急性的，比如感染和哮喘等。但是科恩的计划提出了一个刺激的问题：我们什么时候可以把未来的人生抛到一边，全新享受当下的快乐？

At the start of the 20th century, only one-half of 1 percent of the United States population was over the age of 80. Industrialized nations were preoccupied with infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and polio. Many of the common diseases of aging, such as osteoporosis, were not even thought of as diseases.
在20世纪伊始，美国只有0.5%的人口超过80岁。肺结核和脊髓灰质炎等传染性疾病在工业化国家发病率很高。骨质疏松等普通的老年疾病在当时甚至不被视为疾病。

Today, 3.6 percent of the population is over 80, and life is heavily prescribed not only with the behaviors we should avoid, but the medications we ought to take. More than half of adults age 65 and older are taking five or more prescription medications, over-the-counter medications or dietary supplements, many of them designed not to treat acute suffering, but instead, to reduce the chances of future suffering. Stroke, heart attacks, heart failure, kidney failure, hip fracture — the list is long, and with the United States Department of Health and Human Services’ plan to prevent Alzheimer’s disease by 2025, it grows ever more ambitious.
如今，美国3.6%的人口年过八旬，而我们的生活也被严格地规定了：不仅要注意避免某些行为，还要注意吃药。65岁以上的人之中，有一半人以上要吃五种乃至更多处方药、非处方药或膳食补充剂，其中很多并非用来治疗急性病，而是为了降低未来的发病率。中风、心脏病、心力衰竭、肾衰、髋关节骨折……这个名单很长，而且美国卫生和公众服务部计划到2025年实现预防阿兹海默症，这个名单还会变得更庞大。

Aging in the 21st century is all about risk and its reduction. Insurers reward customers for regular attendance at a gym or punish them if they smoke. Physicians are warned by pharmaceutical companies that even after they have prescribed drugs to reduce their patients’ risk of heart disease, a “residual risk” remains — more drugs are often prescribed. One fitness product tagline captures the zeitgeist: “Your health account is your wealth account! Long live living long!”
在21世纪，衰老只与风险以及和它所带来的衰退有关。保险公司奖励客户常去健身，如果他们吸烟，就会惩罚他们。制药公司告诫医生们，就算他们给病人开了减少心脏病发病率的药，但仍然有“残余风险”——于是医生们就经常开出更多的药。一种健身产品的宣传词把握了这种时代精神：“健康就是财富！长寿万岁！”

But when is it time to stop saving and spend some of our principal? If you thought you were going to die soon, you just might light up, as well as stop taking your daily aspirin, statin and blood pressure pill. You would spend more time and money on present pleasures, like a dinner out with friends, than on future anxieties.
但是什么时候才能停止储蓄，花一点我们的本金？如果你觉得自己马上就要死掉，你可能会点上一支烟，停掉每天的阿司匹林、斯他汀和降压药。你可能就不会那么忧虑未来，而是多花点时间和金钱来享受当下的快乐，比如和朋友出去吃饭之类的。