特斯拉轰动预售的如意算盘

Tesla Motors has just stunned the carmaking world by taking 325,000 orders for its new Model 3 affordable electric vehicle within days of unveiling the prototype at its Los Angeles design studio. That is certainly an impressive performance — especially from a carmaker that has sold only 100,000 cars in its entire 13-year history.

特斯拉汽车(Tesla Motors)在其洛杉矶设计工作室亮相Model 3的原型之后的几天里，这款新的经济实用型电动车便获得了32.5万份订单，震撼汽车制造业。这种表现当然是令人钦佩的——尤其是对一家在其全部13年历史中销量仅达10万辆的车企而言。

But, aside from demonstrating the interest that exists in Tesla’s undeniably glamorous electric vehicle technology, what precisely has the US company’s hard driving chief executive, Elon Musk, achieved?

但是，除了展示出特斯拉无疑光芒四射的电动汽车技术引发的兴趣以外，这家美国公司强硬的首席执行官埃隆•马斯克(Elon Musk)到底收获了什么？

Let’s start with what he hasn’t done, which is to strike a very firm contract with those interested parties. A glance at Tesla’s website shows the relatively loose commitment they have entered into: paying a $1,000 upfront deposit to guarantee a slot on a waiting list. But this is not binding, and can be cancelled if the would-be customer desires. 

让我们首先看看他没有做什么，那就是没有跟相关各方签订一份板上钉钉的合同。浏览特斯拉公司网站可以看到，他们获得了一项相对松散的承诺：提前支付1000元订金，获得排队购买的资格。但是，这份协议没有约束力，原本打算购买的人如果愿意，也可以取消预订。

Nor is there any fixed date by which Tesla must actually come up with a vehicle. While Mr Musk hopes to commence deliveries by the autumn of 2017, he doesn’t have to meet that deadline if the car is not ready. That, it should be noted, is a possibility. Tesla’s latest model — the Model X — was more than two years delayed. 

特斯拉也没有承诺，在哪个固定的日子必须得交付电动汽车。尽管马斯克希望在2017年秋末之前开始交货，但如果届时汽车还没造出来，他也不必非得赶上那个最后期限。应当指出，不能如期交货的可能性是存在的。特斯拉现有的最新型号Model X就延迟了两年多。

Even the final price is not fixed. Mr Musk may talk about a $35,000 vehicle, but he is too canny to pin himself down until he knows how much it will cost to produce one.

甚至最终售价也不是固定的。马斯克可能谈的是3.5万美元一辆车，但他非常精明，在知道生产一台车到底需要多少成本之前，他不可能把自己限定死。

That said, the customer’s main protection is Tesla’s own very public commitment to sell the base model at somewhere around this figure. Jack up the sticker price too much and the car’s “affordable” tag (and sales) will be lost.

即便如此，客户拥有特斯拉自己的公开承诺作为主要保障，这个承诺是：将以大概3.5万美元的价格出售基础型号。实际售价高出这个数字太多的话，这一车型就不能被称为“经济实用型”，还会失去大量订单。

What about using the reservations as a source of capital to complete the project? After all, it is not uncommon for companies to raise capital from would-be buyers.

那么，特斯拉是不是将订金作为完成该项目的资金来源？毕竟，公司从可能的买家那里筹集资金，是常见的做法。

Property developers, for instance, sell apartments “off plan” and use the proceeds to finance their construction. Then there are crowdfunding platforms, such as Kickstarter. Essentially, these allow people to pre-buy goods that they like the look of. Entrepreneurs then go out and see if they can be made profitably. 

比如，地产开发商出售“楼花”，用所得资金来建造房屋。此外还有众筹平台，比如Kickstarter。本质上，这些平台让人们得以预先购买就概念而言符合他们喜好的产品。接着，创业者行动起来，看看能否实现概念产品的盈利性生产。

However, the problem with Tesla’s reservation system is that it does not deliver much of a capital injection. First, the $1,000 per head deposit is so small that it does not bring in much money. While $325m is not exactly loose change, it is a drop in the ocean when your capital expenditure requirements run to some $11bn over the next five years. 

然而，特斯拉预订制度的问题在于，它并不会带来多大的资金注入。首先，每人1000美元的订金太少了，总共不能带来太多资金。尽管3.25亿美元不是小钱，但对未来5年需要的大约110亿美元的资本支出，仍是杯水车薪。

Second, the pre-orders are not just cancellable; the deposits that accompany them are also refundable. So the situation is more akin to the would-be customers granting Tesla an interest-free overdraft. Were the development phase to go badly, or prospective customers to lose enthusiasm, it is quite possible that a substantial chunk of that $325m could be yanked.

其次，不只是预订单可以取消，按照预订单缴纳的订金也是可以退还的。所以，这种情形更像是潜在客户授予特斯拉一定的免息透支额。如果开发阶段进展不顺利，或者潜在客户失去了热情，那么3.25亿美元中的很大一部分很可能要退回去。

All it might take is a big glitch in the Model 3’s development, or the emergence of a sexier vehicle produced by one of Tesla’s rivals — say a General Motors or Toyota — which have now been alerted to the possibility of mass market electric car sales.

这一局面的出现，只需要Model 3的开发中出现重大失误，或者特斯拉的对手之一——比如通用汽车(General Motors)或丰田(Toyota)——推出一款更吸引人的汽车。如今，特斯拉的对手们已注意到了大众市场电动车销量的潜力。

And even if it is delivered on time, the Model 3’s maths may not stack up for some buyers at the $35,000 base price. Some may be depending on federal subsidies worth $7,500 to buyers of electric vehicles. But these are cut back quite sharply after a manufacturer has produced more than 200,000 cars. 

即便特斯拉按时交付，一些买家或许也会认为以3.5万美元的基础价格购买Model 3不是很划算。有些人或许是因为购买电动车可获得7500美元的联邦补贴才下的订单。但是，当一家厂商的电动车产量超过20万辆后，联邦补贴会大幅降低。

Tesla will also face plenty of practical questions about building the Model 3. No one can be sure yet whether battery costs can be reduced sufficiently to make the car’s low price tag viable. Then there’s the question of whether Mr Musk can produce the vehicle in the sort of volumes that his now-groaning order book assumes.

特斯拉在制造Model 3方面也将面临大量实际问题。谁也不确定，电池成本能否降到足够低，使得这一车型能够保持低价特色。此外，订单目前在不断增多，马斯克能否实现那么高的产量，也存在疑问。

But, no matter: that is not the point of what Tesla calls “the single biggest one week launch of any product ever”. Its real purpose was to create a stock market “event” to encourage investors to focus on the scale of the potential opportunity. With the company still spending heavily on capex, and unlikely to generate significant profits until after 2020, it is these people who must ultimately foot the bill to fulfil Mr Musk’s dream.

但这没关系：Model 3的发布意义不在这里（特斯拉称，Model 3的发布是“任何产品有史以来单周预订规模最大的一次发布”）。这一发布的真实意图，在于创建一个股市“事件”，鼓励投资者关注这一潜在机会的规模。由于这家公司的资本支出仍很高，并且直到2020年之后才能产生显著盈利，最终必须为马斯克实现梦想的费用买单的正是股市上的这些投资者。

Whether they continue to do so remains a question of faith rather than rational analysis. Tesla’s current market capitalisation of $32bn is almost three quarters that of General Motors, which produces 10m cars (including a competing electric car) against its annual 50,000.

他们是否会继续这么做，仍是关乎信念、而不是理性分析的问题。目前，特斯拉的市值为320亿美元，接近通用汽车的四分之三。通用汽车的年产量为1000万辆（包含一款与特斯拉构成竞争的电动车的产量），而特斯拉的年产量仅为5万辆。

Keeping that stock market spigot open will take not just excellent products and flawless execution in future. It will require all of the undoubted showman skills that Mr Musk has at his command.

若想在未来保持股市“水龙头”的打开状态，仅靠卓越的产品和无懈可击的执行将是不够的，还将需要马斯克使出浑身解数展现精湛演技。