未来不会被机器人抢走的三种饭碗 看看有你的吗？

如今，人工智能变得越来越强大，在不远的未来，机器人将会“抢走”很多人的饭碗。在人工智能的威胁面前，什么样的工作才能称得上真正的“铁饭碗”呢？

Since the start of the industrial revolution, there have been threats that new machines – from mechanized looms to microchips – would usurp human jobs. For the most part, the humans have prevailed. Now, say some experts, with AI ubiquity on the horizon, the threat’s being realized: the robots really are coming for some jobs.

自从工业革命以来，人类就开始面临饭碗被新机器抢走的威胁，从机械化织布机到微芯片。大多数时候，是人类胜出了。但如今，一些专家指出，随着人工智能变得无处不在，这一威胁很快要变成现实：机器人真的要来抢饭碗了。

A March 2023 report from Goldman Sachs estimated that AI capable of content generation could do a quarter of all the work currently done by humans. Across the European Union and US, the report further notes, 300 million jobs could be lost to automation. And that could be dire, says Martin Ford, author of Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything.

高盛集团2023年3月的一份报告估计，生成式人工智能可以胜任目前四分之一的人类工作。报告还指出，全欧盟和全美国将有3亿个岗位被自动化取代。《机器人的统治：人工智能将如何改变一切》的作者马丁·福特表示，这将会很可怕。

"It's not just that this would happen to individuals, but it could be pretty systemic,” he says. “It could happen to a lot of people, potentially quite suddenly, potentially all at the same time. And that has implications not just for those individuals, but for the whole economy.”

他指出：“人工智能取代的不只是个人，而可能是一整个体系。很多人会失去工作，可能就在一夜之间，也可能会集体失业。这不仅会对这些个人产生影响，还会影响到整个经济。”

Thankfully, it’s not all bad news. The experts issue their warnings with a caveat: there are still things AI isn’t capable of – tasks that involve distinctly human qualities, like emotional intelligence and outside-the-box thinking. And moving into roles that centre those skills could help lessen the chances of being replaced.

所幸的是，也不全是坏消息。专家发出的警告附有限制性条款：还有一些工作是智能机器人干不了的。这些工作带有鲜明的人性化特征，比如需要运用到情商和创造性思维。从事这类技能为核心的职业有助于减少被替代的风险。

"I think there are generally three categories that are going to be relatively insulated in the foreseeable future,” says Ford. “The first would be jobs that are genuinely creative: you’re not doing formulaic work or just rearranging things, but you're genuinely coming up with new ideas and building something new.”

福特称：“我认为在可预见的未来，大体上有三类职业会相对安全。第一类是真正具有创造性的工作，不是公式化工作，也不是重新排列组合，而是真的能想出新点子，造出新东西。”

That doesn’t necessarily mean all jobs that are considered ‘creative’ are safe. In fact, things like graphic design and visual art-related roles may be among the first to go; basic algorithms can direct a bot to analyse millions of images, allowing AI to master aesthetics instantly. But there’s some security in other kinds of creativity, says Ford: “in science, and medicine and law … people whose job is coming up with a new legal strategy or business strategy. I think that there's going to continue to be a place there for human beings”.

这不一定意味着所有“创造类”的工作都是安全的。事实上，平面设计和视觉艺术相关的岗位可能是最早被取代的。基本算法可以指挥机器人程序分析数百万张图像，从而让智能机器人立刻成为美学大师。但是，其他的创造性工作则比较安全，福特指出：“在科学、医学和法学领域……负责制定新法规或商业策略的人。我认为在这些领域人类依然会有一席之地。

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The second insulated category, he continues, is jobs that require sophisticated interpersonal relationships. He points to nurses, business consultants and investigative journalists. These are jobs, he says, “where you need a very deep understanding of people. I think it’ll be a long time before AI has the ability to interact in the kinds of ways that really build relationships”.

不会被人工智能抢走的第二种饭碗是人际关系比较复杂的职业。他指出，护士、商业顾问和调查记者都属于这类职业。他说，有些职业“需要对人有深入了解。我认为在短时间内人工智能不可能具备能与人真正建立联系的互动能力。”

The third safe zone, says Ford, “are jobs that really require lots of mobility and dexterity and problem-solving ability in uNPRedictable environments”. Many trade jobs – think electricians, plumbers, welders and the like – fall under this umbrella. “These are the kinds of jobs where you're dealing with a new situation all the time,” he adds. “They are probably the hardest of anything to automate.”

福特指出，安全区内的第三类职业是“需要在不可预测的环境下拥有高度的机动性和灵活性以及解决问题的能力。”许多技术工种，比如电工、水管工、焊工，都属于这一类。福特补充道：“这类工作总是要面对新情况，很可能是最难实现自动化的。”

It’s important to note, says Ford, that an advanced education or a high-paying position is not a defence against AI takeover. “We might think the person in the white-collar job is higher on the food chain than someone who drives a car for a living,” he says. “But the white-collar employee’s future is more threatened by the Uber driver, because we still don’t have self-driving cars, but AI can certainly write reports. In many cases, more educated workers are going to be more threatened than then even the least educated workers. Think of the person that works cleaning hotel rooms – it's really hard to automate that job.”

福特说，必须指出的是，高学历或高薪职位并不能阻止你的饭碗被人工智能抢走。他说：“我们可能以为白领工作者在食物链上的位置比出租车司机更高，但是白领工作者未来面临的失业风险比出租车司机更大，因为我们现在还没有自动驾驶汽车，但是人工智能却肯定可以写报告。在很多情况下，受过更多教育的劳动者面临的威胁比没什么文化水平的劳动者还要更大。想一想那个打扫酒店房间的人，想要把这份工作自动化还是挺难的。”

In short, seeking roles in dynamic, shifting environments that include uNPRedictable tasks is good way to stave off job loss to AI. At least, for a while.

简而言之，找一份需要适应不断发展变化的环境而且无法预知具体任务的工作是避免被人工智能抢走饭碗的好办法。至少目前看来是如此。