多国专家驳斥“中国产能过剩论”

最近一段时间，部分美西方政客和媒体不断渲染所谓“中国产能过剩论”。分析人士普遍认为，“中国产能过剩论”站不住脚，来自权威机构的数据也不支持所谓的“产能过剩”。“中国产能过剩论”实质上是抹黑和打压中国经济的政治工具，其背后凸显的是逆全球化和贸易保护主义，其结果是阻碍全球贸易，损害各国共同利益。

The so-called "China overcapacity" narrative has been employed by certain Western countries, primarily the United States, as a political tool to tarnish and suppress the Chinese economy, the observers said. Behind the slander lies an agenda of anti-globalization and protectionism that ultimately hinders normal global trade and undermines the common interests of nations, they said.
分析人士指出，以美国为首的部分西方国家将所谓的“中国产能过剩论”作为抹黑和打压中国经济的政治工具。其背后是反全球化和贸易保护主义，其结果是阻碍正常的全球贸易，损害各国共同利益。

China holds a significant position in the global supply chain, although that's not due to Chinese policy, but rather the result of companies and consumers worldwide making their own decisions, experts and executives said. After all, they added, China, as the world's second-largest economy, has a comparative advantage in its economic model — one that makes it the go-to manufacturing hub of the world.
多位经济学家和跨国企业高管表示，中国在全球供应链中占据重要地位，这是全球企业和消费者自主决策的结果，而不是中国的政策决定的。作为世界第二大经济体，中国的经济模式具有比较优势，使其成为世界制造业的中心。

Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, said concerns about Chinese exports in terms of overcapacity are not supported well by evidence, noting that the World Trade Organization addresses noncompetitive practices with anti-dumping and countervailing duties, and there is no strong evidence that either applies to China.
亚洲开发银行首席经济学家朴之水表示，对“中国输出过剩产能”的担忧证据不足。他指出，世界贸易组织通过征收反倾销税和反补贴税解决不当竞争问题，但没有有力的证据表明这两种做法适用于中国。

On the contrary, a critical issue facing the world today is not an oversupply of green energy capacity, but rather a severe shortage. According to the International Energy Agency, annual sales of electric vehicles are projected to reach 45 million units by 2030, more than four times the demand in 2022.
当今世界面临的关键问题不是绿色能源产能过剩，而是严重短缺。据国际能源署测算，2030年全球新能源汽车需求量将达4500万辆，是2022年的4倍多。

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said, "It is unfair to specifically mention China's industrial policies and imply that China's competitive advantage is subsidized by the government", as many countries are allocating government subsidies and introducing industrial policies to boost strategic industries and productivity.
摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强称，“刻意针对中国的产业政策、并暗示中国的竞争优势是靠政府补贴，这是不公平的”，因为许多国家正在通过政府补贴和相应产业政策促进战略性产业和生产力的发展。

For instance, the US Inflation Reduction Act — the largest US investment ever in clean energy and climate action — was signed into law by US President Joe Biden, and the White House has awarded billions of dollars in subsidies for advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
以美国为例，美国总统乔·拜登签署了《通胀削减法案》，这是该国有史以来对清洁能源和气候行动的最大投资，白宫已为先进半导体制造业提供数亿美元的补贴。

In the lead-up to the US presidential election in November, politicians are increasingly using issues of overcapacity and the trade imbalance with other countries for political leverage, with political considerations taking precedence over genuine economic concerns, observers said.
分析人士称，在十一月美国大选前夕，一些政客将所谓“中国产能过剩论”和与其他国家的贸易不平衡问题作为政治筹码，其政治考虑优先于真正的经济关切。

Yao Yang, director of the China Center for Economic Research at Peking University, said: "The Biden administration claims to uphold a worker-centered trade policy, and its recent moves, from raising the capacity issue to launching a trade probe against China, are more like gestures to please and curry favor with certain groups of voters, rather than pursuing any economic considerations.
北京大学中国经济研究中心主任姚洋表示：“美国政府声称其贸易政策为‘以工人为中心’”，从炮制‘中国产能过剩论’到对中国发起贸易调查，其近期举措更像是为取悦和讨好某些选民群体做姿态，而非出于经济考虑。