《财富》主编评论中国之行

音频下载[点击右键另存为]
《财富》杂志是一本由美国人亨利·鲁斯创办于1930年，主要刊登经济问题研究文章。现隶属时代华纳集团旗下的时代公司。为全球人熟知的两个杂志运营品牌“财富论坛”和“500强”仍然在继续维持着它们在财经领域的话语霸权。杂志本体操作得仍然让人看不出其有任何老态，即便是在前些年那些锐意改变一切的新经济杂志面前，《财富》仍然保持着可贵的新鲜。

What time is power and present is growing and Fortune manager editor Andy Serwer was just returned from his first trip to China. He joins us now. How was his reflection any think for being here?

Oh, first of all, It's a little embarrassing almost this is my first tip in fact the reason, er, one of the reasons is why, when there is a young, Chinese journalist came and visited me asked me what I thought about China, the last time I was there I told I hadn’t been there and he put his pen down and he said, "That's embarrassing!" So, sort of almost shamed and awkward . Obviously it was a place that I should have gone to many years before but, you know, I am really grad I went now. Um, you know, lots of stuff is changing there. I guess one thing that surprised me was just, you know, the magnitude of the cities and you read about Shanghai, Beijing, I was in another city called Dalian. Um, there are 30 cities now would board five million people. Um, the size, the scale, the scope is true, is staggering.

At very interesting, you know, er, over the weekend in Omaha, at the Berkshire's annual meeting I was talking to Charlie Munger, a Buffered right-hand man. And he said to me, China's economy is exactly right for China. (em)Do you agree?

Yep, I am not sure exactly what he meant but I mean it is sort of right now the flit of US economy in the first quarter, our economy contracted by 6%. There is a grow at
6%, you know, 6% is actually very slow for the Chinese economy, they need to create about 20 million jobs a year. That is a question is whether or not they can do that. Obviously their exports to the US is suffering right now, they are trying to get Chinese consumers to consume more, to buy more. Chinese consumers are big savers. Then the question is, well, if the Chinese consumers aren't saving, who is going to take care them the older aged. The Chinese government says made walk created social security system. So, a lot of these issues are still being played out right now. I mean, but to me, Poppy, the big story in our life time is going to be China and the US and China and how they engage?

Well, some people referred to as ChinAmerica, I saying, we are, we can not disconnect we are inherently tied to China more and more, so, when it comes to currency, a lot of talk about, possibly the US dollar not remaining the international reserve currency? (Yep, there is)
Is China possibly replacing it?

Well, that, there is a long way to go before that happens, but look at this way, right now the US economy accounts for 25% of the world’s GDP, used to be 50%. Ok, now we are getting down to 25. The settlements in US dollars of global transactions is 60%. Ok, so that is a big disconnect there, other words we have talked about the dollar being the reserve currency. The gold stand it if you’re well of global currencies.

That is going to change; particularly US economy is weaker now. Right now the Chinese currency, you know, is not freely convert. So, inner, it is fixed and held by the Chinese government. That something we have been putting a lot pressure on them to change. That's gotta happen before the Chinese currency is reserve currency. And even the Chinese themselves don't fully trust their currency; they've trusted the dollar for decades, decades. That's gonna take a while to change but you could see that happening in some point.