原油价格坐上了过山车

音频下载[点击右键另存为]
In its own unique way, oil is defying gravity. Even the weight of the global crisis has not kept crude down. The trend has many in the industry declaring that the era of cheap oil may be well behind us.

(If) it was easier to find it, and easier, cheaper to develop it, prices wouldn't be at 80 dollars, I assure you. In a recession, you would have maybe 20-dollar oil. But it's not easier, to either find it or to develop it. That's reflected in the economics.

The economics favor the major Gulf states like the UAE which sits atop 8 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. Not only is it plentiful, but inexpensive to produce at between five and ten dollars a barrel. 

The national oil companies and their governments have taken over the access to all their oil. So anything that's cheap and easy to produce, they will do themselves. They now have the technology and the money to buy the technology, they don't need IOCs for that.

The IOCs or international oil companies are left battling it out for more costly prices where their expertise and technology remain in demand. Recent discoveries in Kazakhstan, the Gulf of Mexico, and off the coast of Brazil have allayed fears of what many call "peak oil", the term used to describe falling global production. The new finds, however, come with a heftier price tag.

We are looking here, at here is more really quite expensive oil. Oil that you need at least 40- to 50-dollar oil price to be confident you could make a decent return. That's really different.

Beyond oil which is harder to reach, there is another category: going into countries with high political and security risk. In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq still top the list.

The easy ones, always, the low-hanging fruit has already been taken, right? So, after 40 years of this process, it's not surprising that what's left are all the tough ones, right? It's normal.

Over the next two decades, it is estimated the industry will spend 13 trillion dollars to replace depleting supplies even in the oil-rich Middle East.

John Defterios, cnn, Abu Dhabi.

Glossary:

sit atop: 坐在…之上。直译就是坐在8%的石油储量之上，因为石油在地下嘛。引申为拥有

battle it out: if two people or groups battle it out, they compete with each other until there is a definite winner

allay: to make someone feel less afraid, worried etc; allay (sb's) fear/concern/suspicion etc

low-hanging fruit: 挂的位置低的果实，就是比较容易摘到的果实