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谁是朝鲜新的领导人?

2010-09-13来源:和谐英语

In the secretive world of North Korean politics, it doesn't get much bigger than this, a rare meeting of the Workers' Party. And the expectation is it could set the scene for a handover of power from Kim Jong Il to his third and youngest son.

He may not be unveiled as Kim Jong Il's successor. That may come later, but if he does, for example, become a member of the Central Committee, then we know things are in process.

Little is known about Kim Jong Un. This, a rare photo of him as a teenager. He is now in his late 20s.

Equally unclear is whether the entrenched apparatus in the North Korean ruling party, in the North Korean military, particularly veterans in their sixties, and seventies and so on will accept somebody who is not even thirty as the new leader.

Kim Jong Il served a twenty-year of apprenticeship at his father's side, but with the dear leader now 68 and in poor health after suffering a stroke, analysts believe succession plans have been accelerated.

If he can give his son a few years to consolidate his power, build the network of relationships within the security apparatus, the military, the party, that will augur well for a smooth succession. If he dies sooner than that there will be much more uncertainty.

Kim's most recent trip to China may have been partly to build support for his young son. Without Beijing the regime in Pyongyang will most likely collapse.

If China can sort of help keep North Korea afloat, then it makes it easier for the new regime to pursue status quo policies.

But for the US, South Korea and Japan, the status quo is the problem, and analysts say there is little indication that North Korea ruled by a younger Kim would open up and end its illicit nuclear and missile programs.

John Vause, cnn in Beijing.