中国房价二月份停止上涨

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that of the 70 large and mid-sized cities tracked by the government, 66 saw home prices fall or remain unchanged year-on-year. The real estate market in big cities in particular is heading for a downward trend in prices.

But four cities, including Jinan, Guiyang, Xining and Baotou, has seen a slight increase in home prices, while the turnover in the real estate markets in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou increased in February. Some are concerned that this could indicate that China's real estate market is reversing course.

Cao Jianhai, a researcher at the Institute of Industrial Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says it's too early to say whether the country's real estate market has started to recover.

"Average new home prices in Beijing and Shanghai were all above 20-thousand-yuan per square meter in February, which is too expensive. So instead of loosening the policies, the measures to curb runaway property prices may be tightened in big cities."

Property experts say increasing turnover in big cites is a result of sales promotions. More than 80 percent of building projects in Beijing offer discount prices. Industry insiders predict that the spike in sales will end by the end of April.

A recent report by Standard & Poor's predicts the credit ratings of more Chinese real estate companies will be downgraded within the next six months due to increasing refund risks, and that China's housing prices will drop 10 percent by June on a yearly basis.

At a press conference after the end of this year's National People's Congress annual session, Premier Weng Jiabao said housing prices were still "far from falling back to a reasonable level."

Property analyst Yang Yu gives his opinion on the room for housing price cuts.

"Home prices are on the starting line of a declining trajectory. Then what is a reasonable price? Premier Wen pointed out that a reasonable housing price should be in line with a buyer's income and construction cost and profit."

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that new home prices in all 70 cities stopped increasing in January as a result of the government's persistent cooling efforts. On a year-on-year basis, 27 cities saw new home price declines in February, up from 15 in January.

Although this is good news, experts warn that the government should be alert to the illusion that the bubbles in the real estate market have burst.

Junichi Ujiie is Chairman of Nomura Holdings Incorporated, a financial services provider.

"Rising property prices in China have fallen in the last few months, and in major cities there have been signs that the authorities have loosened manipulating measures. Our previous experience tells us that we should remain alert for property bubbles."

Ba Shusong, a senior officer at the State Council's Development Research Center, says although the tightening policies have achieved positive results, the market means are the ultimate solutions.

"In the long run, we need to let the market play a bigger role. The government should encourage real estate developers to build more houses to drive down housing prices thorough competition rather than control measures."

For CRI, I'm He Fei.