2012沃尔夫森经济学奖得主--凯投宏观

Submission? A proposal for an orderly Euro Zone exit; The prize? 390,000 dollars. And today turns out we have a winner. The Wolfson Economics Prize has been awarded to Roger Bootle and his team from Capital Economics, that's a UK research consultancy, for their submission.

Now after the Nobel Prize for Economics, what all we might hear is the second biggest cash prize awarded for this field. Roger Bootle's proposal is called "Leaving the Euro: A Practical Guide. " He told us how it might work and why he thinks that a real Euro Zone exit is more likely now than it's ever been.

Well, I think the crisis has been building up gradually but continually, every so often you get an attempt to fix it or something, that’s for traders, of fixing of it. And then it proves to be inadequate which is just another one of those faces. I think the background crisis is actually intensifying, probably a breakup I would have mentioned: Is it anything more likely now than it was a few months ago?

Our plan envisages a country preparing in secret, a small group of officials. And then, enacting that plan very quickly, essentially overnight, announcing to the populous that domestic monetary amounts have been redenominated into a new currency, let's call it the drachma, at one for one.So a given amount in Euros becomes the same amount in drachmas. Meanwhile, on the exchanges, on the foreign exchanges, the drachma depreciates sharply. Perhaps it would be one up to 1.7, 2 to 1, we don't know. That's not a problem. That is the essence of the solution.

The country then redenominates all its debts, its domestic debt, into this currency. It establishes a new policy regime, bans wage indexation, establishes tight controls on fiscal policy. And then lies back and hopes, I think correctly, that before very long, that much lower exchange rate will bring renewed economic growth.