伪经济学家被纷纷打脸，人民币依据强劲汇率未降反升

The prospect that China would use currency devaluation to retaliate against any escalations of U.S. tariffs loomed in the aftermath of a sharp drop in the country’s stock markets.

中国股市暴跌后，中国利用汇率贬值来报复美国关税升级举动的前景益发凸显出来。

But one gauge of the Chinese currency’s strength indicates no efforts to devalue this year.

但一项衡量人民币强劲程度的指标显示，今年汇率水平并未贬值。

On Wednesday, the central bank set its reference rate for the yuan at 6.4586 to the dollar, 0.5% weaker than Tuesday’s rate and the lowest since January.

周三，中国央行将人民币/美元中间价设在人民币6.4586元，较周二中间价低0.5%，为1月来最低水平。

“One would imagine that China will be thinking about currency devaluation again,” said Rabobank senior Asia-Pacific strategist Michael Every in a research note. The yuan doesn’t trade freely, and analysts are often left wondering what the People’s Bank of China has in mind for the currency. Devaluation is one of Beijing’s most powerful economic tools.

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)资深亚太策略师Michael Every在一份研究报告中称，要意识到中国会再次考虑使用汇率贬值手段。人民币不是自由交易货币，分析人士经常要考虑中国央行在人民币汇率上的意图。让人民币贬值是中国政府最有力的经济工具之一。

China imports far less from the U.S. than it exports to it and could use depreciation as an alternative way to retaliate against tariff increases.

中国从美国进口的商品规模远低于对美国的出口，因此中国可能将货币贬值作为反制美国加征关税的一个选项。

Though the U.S. dollar has risen 2% against the yuan this year, the trade-weighted measure of the yuan published by the PBOC, the CFETS index, has risen since trade tremors began with the announcement of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs in March.

尽管今年以来美元兑人民币升值2%，但中国央行发布的CFETS人民币汇率指数显示，自3月份美国宣布钢铝关税引发贸易风波以来，该人民币贸易加权指数有所升值。

The yuan is higher this year against the euro, yen, British pound, Australian dollar and Korean won. Though the dollar exchange rate is most commonly referenced, those currencies make up around 46% of the basket used to calculate the index, versus the greenback’s 22% weighting.

今年以来，人民币兑欧元、日圆、英镑、澳元和韩圆汇率均走高。虽然美元汇率最常被作为参照物，但这些货币在用于计算该指数的一篮子货币中的合计权重达46%左右，美元的权重为22%。

The CFETS index hit a two-year high in May and was a fraction below that level on June 15, the last weekly fix for the trade-weighted measure.

CFETS指数在5月份创出两年高点，6月15日的最新数据显示，该贸易加权指数处于略低于该高点的水平。

The lack of any broad depreciation in the yuan suggests that China isn’t attempting to gain an unfair advantage over its trading partners in the foreign-exchange market.

人民币未出现任何大幅贬值表明，中国并未试图在外汇市场中获得相对贸易伙伴的不公平优势。

That isn’t a recent phenomenon. The Bank for International Settlements tracks countries’ real exchange rates, adjusted for inflation. It shows the yuan has risen around 90% against 61 international currencies since its series began in 1994.

这并非是最近才出现的现象。国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)追踪各国实际汇率，并根据通胀因素进行相应调整。该行的数据显示，自1994年汇改以来，人民币兑61种国际货币已累计升值约90%。

Recall what happened the last time China cut the yuan’s value: A rapid weakening in 2015 sparked capital outflows as investors attempted to remove money from the country and avoid further depreciation. The government responded by crimping the ability to move money out of China.

回想一下上一次中国将人民币贬值时发生了什么：人民币在2015年的迅速走软引发资本外流，因投资者试图将资金撤出中国，以避免人民币进一步贬值。为应对这一局面，中国政府采取了相应措施，以限制投资者将资本撤出中国的能力。

Devaluing again could damage Beijing’s long-term goal to open its financial markets and promote the yuan as an international currency, according to Bilal Hafeez, a strategist at Nomura.

据野村(Nomura)策略师Bilal Hafeez称，人民币再度贬值可能会损害北京的开放金融市场的以及推动人民币成为国际货币的长期目标。