假如德国转向民族主义

Angela Merkel is besieged. The Bavarian sister party of the German chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union wants tougher frontier controls. The anti-migrant pose struck by Horst Seehofer, the Christian Social Union interior minister in Ms Merkel’s coalition, is cheered by populists from Warsaw to Rome, via Vienna and Budapest. Have any of them thought, some of us wonder, what a Germany taking a nationalist turn might actually look like?

安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)正受到围攻。这位德国总理领导的基督教民主联盟(CDU)的巴伐利亚姊妹党希望进一步加强边境管控。在默克尔领导的执政联盟中，来自基社盟(CSU)的德国内政部长霍斯特泽霍费尔(Horst Seehofer)摆出的反移民姿态，受到了华沙、维也纳、布达佩斯和罗马的民粹主义者的欢呼。我们中的一些人揣测，他们中有没有人想过，一个转向民族主义的德国看上去会是什么样子？

Mr Seehofer’s motives are transparent. The CSU suffered a mauling at the hands of the unashamedly xenophobic Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the 2017 national election. Facing a state poll in October, the party now wants to outflank AfD. EU leaders will discuss a European-wide migration scheme later this month. If he is not happy, Mr Seehofer is threatening unilateral controls.

泽霍费尔的动机显而易见。在2017年的全国大选中，基社盟遭到了公开标榜排外的德国另类选择党(AfD)的重创。面对10月份的州选举，基社盟希望能够把另类选择党打个措手不及。欧盟领导人将在本月晚些时候商讨一项全欧洲范围的移民计划。如果不能令他满意，泽霍费尔威胁要单方面实施边界管控。

Many Germans — a majority, the latest poll suggests — remain suspicious of the chancellor’s open borders strategy. Among neighbours, the Visegrad Four — Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary — are fierce critics. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the leader of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party and Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, scorn efforts to disperse asylum seekers across the union.

最新民调似乎显示，多数德国人仍对默克尔的开放边界战略持怀疑态度。德国的邻国中，维谢格拉德四国集团(Visegrad Four)——波兰、斯洛伐克、捷克和匈牙利——都是该政策的激烈批评者。对于在欧盟各国安置寻求庇护者的努力，波兰执政的法律与正义党(Law and Justice Party)领导人雅罗斯瓦夫卡钦斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)和匈牙利总理欧尔班维克托(Viktor Orban)不屑一顾。

The populists are united in their simple sloganising. Hungary’s population is shrinking and ageing, as talented young people seek opportunities elsewhere. Yet Budapest is proud of its barbed-wire camps for asylum seekers and migrants unfortunate enough to cross the border.

民粹主义者靠简单的口号团结在一起。随着有才华的年轻人到别国寻找机会，匈牙利的人口正在萎缩和老龄化。然而，布达佩斯却以其把寻求庇护者和移民关在带刺的铁丝网营地而自豪。

The reality, of course, is that no single government can take control of its frontiers. The narrow national interests held dear by populists frequently collide with each other. It is forgotten now, but Ms Merkel kept open Germany’s borders in 2015 to ease pressure on Austria. Vienna risked being overwhelmed by refugees bussed from, well, Mr Orban’s Hungary.

当然，现实是任何单一国家政府都无法控制本国的边境。民粹主义者珍视的狭隘的国家利益经常相互冲突。现在人们已经忘记了，但默克尔2015年保持德国边境开放之举缓解了奥地利的压力。当时欧尔班领导的匈牙利用大巴把难民递解出境，几乎把维也纳淹没。

The nationalists’ pitch is to fear and emotion rather than reason. If they thought about it, they would know that beggar-thy-neighbour policies cannot work. Closing a border has a ricochet effect. Mr Kurz must surely realise that Mr Seehofer’s plans would leave Austria to cope with refugees stranded on the wrong side of the German border.

民族主义者兜售的那一套是恐惧和情绪，而非理性。如果仔细想想，他们就会发现以邻为壑的政策行不通。关闭边界只会产生“弹开效应”。难道库尔茨就没有意识到，泽霍费尔的计划将让奥地利去应对困在德国边界以外的难民吗？