美联储将迎来第九次加息？

OK, the Fed has already raised interest rates eight times in the last year, and they could do it some more.

美联储去年已经加息8次，他们可能还会再进一步加息。

Yeah. You see, raising interest rates is supposed to restrain the economy and bring inflation down.

对。你明白，加息是为了抑制经济衰退，降低通货膨胀。

Prices are still climbing faster than most people would like, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is sure to be asked about that when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee today.

物价上涨的速度仍然比大多数人期望的要快，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天在参议院银行委员会作证时肯定会被问到这个问题。

NPR's Scott Horsley covers the Fed. Hey there, Scott.

NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利为您报道美联储。嗨，斯科特。

Good morning, Steve.

早上好，史蒂夫。

How's the Fed doing?

美联储情况如何?

You know, their job's looking a little tougher now than it did about a month ago, the last time that Fed policymakers met.

他们现在的工作看起来比大约一个月前要艰难一些，即，美联储政策制定者上一次开会时遇到的工作。

In the five weeks since that meeting, we've had a killer jobs report showing more than half a million jobs added in January.

那次会后的五个星期里，我们有个杀手锏，即显示1月份增加50多万个就业岗位的就业报告。

We've had retail numbers showing people are still spending at a rapid clip, and we've had inflation reports showing prices are not leveling off as much as had been hoped.

我们的零售数据显示，人们仍在快速消费，我们的通胀报告显示，物价并没有像预期的那样稳定下来。

You know, ordinarily strong job growth and spending would be a sign of economic strength.

通常强劲的就业增长和支出是经济实力的标志。

But when you're wrestling with high inflation, it's not what the Fed wants to see.

不过，当你在与高通胀作斗争时，这不是美联储想看到的。

Here's how Mary Daly, who heads the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, summed it up over the weekend.

以下是旧金山联邦储备银行行长玛丽·戴利上周末的总结。

It's clear there is more work to do.

显然还有更多的工作要做。

In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer period, will likely be necessary.

为了顺利度过这段高通胀时期，可能有必要在较长一段时间内继续收紧政策。

And other Fed officials have been sounding similar alarms, suggesting that interest rates may have to go up higher and stay up longer in order to get prices under control.

其他美联储官员也发出了类似的警告，暗示为控制住物价，可能不得不进一步上调利率，且要维持更长时间。

If, in fact, they do that, what would that mean for the broader economy?

如果他们真的这么做了，这对整体经济意味着什么?

Well, it means more of a drag on the housing market.

这意味着对房地产市场的拖累更大。

We're seeing mortgage rates climbing once again. It means carrying a balance on your credit card would cost more.

我们看到抵押贷款利率再次攀升。这意味着你的信用卡欠款会支出更多钱。

So far, the Fed's efforts have not hurt the job market.

到目前为止，美联储的努力还没有损害就业市场。

Unemployment in January was the lowest in more than half a century.

一月份的失业率是半个多世纪以来的最低水平。

We're going to find out later this week what happened in February.

我们将在本周晚些时候了解二月份的失业情况。

We're also going to get new inflation numbers next week.

我们将在下周得到新的通胀数据。

So by the time the Fed's rate-setting committee meets in a couple of weeks, they will have a better idea whether all that hot January data was just a fluke or maybe a sign of a longer-run trend.

等到美联储利率制定委员会开几周会时，他们将会更好地了解1月份的所有强劲数据只是一时侥幸，还是标志着一种长期趋势。

Right now, most investors are betting that the Fed is going to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point at its next meeting.

目前，大多数投资者都笃定美联储将在下次会议上再加息25个基点。

But the odds of a larger rate hike have gone up in the last month.

不过，在过去一个月里，提高加息幅度的可能性有所上升。

Back in December, the average Fed policymaker was predicting that interest rates would top out at just over 5%, or about half a point higher than they are right now.

去年12月，美联储政策制定者的平均预测利率最高将略高于5%，比目前的水平高出约0.5个百分点。

Given what we've seen and heard in the last few weeks, it's now possible that policymakers will have to nudge that peak interest rate a little bit higher.

鉴于我们在过去几周的所见所闻，现在政策制定者可能不得不略微上调最高利率。

NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks for joining us so early once again. Appreciate it.

NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利，再次感谢您这么早来参加我们的节目。感谢。

You're welcome.

不用谢。