通货膨胀：战时的世界经济(上)

Finance & Economics

财经板块

Inflation: The world economy at war

通货膨胀：战时的世界经济

War and sanctions means inflation but not necessarily higher interest rates

战争和制裁引发通货膨胀，但不一定意味着更高的利率

Russia may have tried to build a “fortress economy”, but it is the West that currently looks financially impervious.

俄罗斯可能试图建立自己的“堡垒经济”，但目前看来，在经济上不受影响的反而是西方。

Compared with the deep economic crisis brought about in the country by Western sanctions, the consequences for the rich world have been small.

西方制裁给俄罗斯带来了严重的经济危机，相比之下，这些富裕国家遭受的影响一直很小。

Though American stocks fell sharply when the war started on February 24th, on March 2nd they closed almost 4% higher than their level the night before the invasion.

虽然2月24日战争爆发时美国股市大幅下跌，但在3月2日收盘时却比入侵前一晚上涨了近4%。

European stocks are about 4% down—a big hit, but nothing compared with the financial rout under way in Russia, where the currency has collapsed and stockmarket trading has been suspended for days.

欧洲股市下跌了大约4%，堪称重创，但与俄罗斯正在发生的金融危机相比，仍显得微不足道。在俄罗斯，货币暴跌，股票交易已暂停数日。

In part the muted reaction reflects Russia’s low weight in the global economy: about 2% in dollar terms.

在一定程度上，这种柔和的反应体现了俄罗斯在全球经济中所占的比重较低：以美元计算仅为2%左右。

The country’s relative poverty and smaller population when compared with the rest of Europe mean that its exporters depend on European demand but not vice versa.

与欧洲其他国家相比，俄罗斯相对贫穷，人口较少，这意味着它的出口商品依赖于欧洲的需求，而不是欧洲依赖俄罗斯。

Goldman Sachs, a bank, estimates that the loss of exports caused by a 10% fall in Russian spending would cost the euro zone only about 0.1% of its gdp, and Britain still less. Financial links are modest.

据高盛银行估计，俄罗斯开支下降10%所造成的出口损失仅相当于欧元区GDP的0.1%，英国的损失更少。它们之间的金融联系很有限。

Yet Russia’s economic importance vastly outweighs its gdp or financial clout owing to its energy exports.

然而，由于能源出口，俄罗斯的经济重要性远远超过其GDP或金融影响力。

It produces nearly a fifth of the world’s natural gas, and more than a tenth of the world’s oil, the price of which drives much of the short-term variation in global inflation.

它生产了世界上近五分之一的天然气和超过十分之一的石油，而石油的价格在全球通货膨胀的短期波动中起到了很大的作用。

Typically 30-40% of the eu’s gas supply comes from Russia (though this has fallen to about 20% in recent months as Europe has increased its imports of lng from America).

一般来说，欧盟天然气供应的30-40%来自俄罗斯(虽然近几个月来，由于欧洲增加了从美国进口的液化天然气，这一比例已降至20%左右)。

It does not just heat Europe’s homes but also powers much of its industrial production. Among big economies Italy and Germany are particularly exposed.

它们不仅为欧洲的家庭供暖，也为许多工业生产提供能源。在大型经济体中，意大利和德国受到的影响尤为严重。

Energy prices increased dramatically on March 1st and 2nd. European natural-gas spot prices are now more than double their level at the start of February.

3月1日和2日，能源价格大幅上涨。欧洲天然气现货价格目前是2月初水平的两倍多。

So are futures prices for delivery in December 2022, reflecting in part the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia to Germany, which had been hoped to ease supply this year.

2022年12月交割的原油期货价格也是如此，这在一定程度上反映了从俄罗斯到德国的北溪2号(Nord Stream 2)管道的取消所产生的后果，人们本希望该管道能缓解今年的供应紧张。

The oil price is up over 25% to about $115 per barrel. The energy squeeze will worsen Europe’s inflation problem while also hitting its growth.

油价上涨了25%以上，至每桶115美元左右。能源短缺将加剧欧洲的通胀问题，同时也会打击欧洲的经济增长。

JPMorgan Chase, a bank, has raised its forecast for euro-area inflation at the end of the year by 1.1 percentage points, to 3.6%, while cutting its growth forecast for 2022 by 0.6 percentage points, to 4.1%.

摩根大通银行将欧元区年底的通胀预期上调1.1个百分点，至3.6%，同时将2022年的增长预期下调0.6个百分点，至4.1%。

As a producer of oil and gas America is mostly insulated from the drag on growth, but will feel the inflationary effects of pricier oil.

作为石油和天然气的生产国，美国基本上不会受到经济增长的拖累，但会感受到油价上涨带来的通胀效应。