通货膨胀：战时的世界经济(下)

Things could get much worse should sanctions expand in scope to cover energy purchases or if Russia retaliates against them by reducing its exports.

如果制裁的范围扩大到能源采购，或者如果俄罗斯通过减少出口来报复制裁，情况可能会变得更糟。

JPMorgan Chase projects that a sustained shut-off of the Russian oil supply might cause prices to rise to $150 per barrel, a level sufficient to knock 1.6% off global gdp while raising consumer prices by another 2%.

摩根大通预计，俄罗斯石油供应的持续中断可能导致油价升至每桶150美元，这种价格足以使全球GDP下降1.6%，同时消费者价格将再上涨2%。

The stagflationary shock would carry echoes of the Yom Kippur war of 1973, which sparked the first of the two energy crises of that decade.

滞胀冲击会让人想起1973年的赎罪日战争，那场战争引发了那十年中两次能源危机中的第一次。

It greatly worsened an existing inflation problem caused in part by the collapse earlier that year of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates.

它极大地恶化了已有的通货膨胀问题，部分原因是当年早些时候布雷顿森林固定汇率体系的崩溃。

Today much pricier energy would be layered atop the inflation caused by the pandemic and the associated stimulus.

今天，价格高得多的能源会被置于疫情和相关刺激措施造成的通胀之上。

If the oil and gas keep flowing, the existing increases in their respective prices will still make life uncomfortable for central banks, who were anyway raising or preparing to raise interest rates.

如果石油和天然气可以继续供应，它们现有的价格涨幅仍然会让央行坐立难安，因为央行无论如何都会加息或准备加息。

They usually tolerate inflation caused by expensive energy. It tends to quickly dissipate, or even go into reverse.

央行通常会容忍由昂贵的能源引起的通货膨胀。这种通胀往往会迅速消散，甚至逆转。

But recently they have worried that the persistence of high inflation since last summer might lead companies to think they should continue to increase prices at a rapid pace and workers to continue to ask for higher wages.

但最近，央行担心，自去年夏天以来持续存在的高通胀可能会让企业认为，它们应该继续快速提高物价，工人们也会继续要求加薪。

Inflation, in other words, may have taken on a momentum of its own. Further increases in energy prices can only heighten that danger—while adding to the squeeze on growth that higher interest rates bring about.

换句话说，通货膨胀可能已经呈现出了一种势头。能源价格的进一步上涨只会加剧这种危险——同时还会进一步挤压高利率带来的经济增长。

At present markets are priced for a fairly conventional policy response.

目前，市场是根据相当常规的政策回应做出的定价。

Since February 1st investors’ inflation expectations, as revealed by the price of swaps, have risen sharply at a one-year horizon for Britain, America and the euro zone.

从2月1日起，投资者对英国、美国和欧元区的通货膨胀预期，跟一年前相比急剧上升，正如互换价格所显示的那样。

Yet expectations for longer-term inflation, as measured by long-dated forward swaps, have not changed much.

然而，用远期互换来衡量的长期通胀预期并没有多大变化。

Projections of the ecb’s policy rate at the end of the year have barely changed.

人们对欧洲央行年底政策利率的预测几乎没有改变。

Investors have priced in another quarter-of-a-percentage-point rise in interest rates this year in both Britain and America.

投资者已经消化了英国和美国今年利率将再次上升0.25个百分点的预期。

On March 2nd Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal reserve, indicated that it would still raise rates.

3月2日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储仍将加息。

There have, however, been sharp movements in bond yields at longer horizons.

然而，长期来看，债券收益率出现了剧烈波动。

In mid-February yields on five-year German government bonds had been in positive territory for the first time since 2018. They have since fallen to about -0.25%.

2月中旬，五年期德国政府债券收益率自2018年以来首次处于正区间。自那以来，收益率已降至-0.25%左右。

On March 1st and 2nd the yield on an American ten-year Treasury bond fell from nearly 2% to 1.7%, a greater fall than in any two-day trading period since March 2020, before recovering slightly to 1.9% the next day.

3月1日和2日，美国十年期国债收益率从近2%跌至1.7%，跌幅超过2020年3月以来的任何两日交易时段，次日略有回升至1.9%。

In other words, investors are betting that today’s inflation, even once exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, will be temporary—and that over the long term interest rates are likely to be a bit lower than on past projections. But that hardly means markets are sanguine.

换句话说，投资者正在押注眼下的通货膨胀(即便曾因乌克兰战争而加剧)只是暂时的，而且长期利率可能会比过去的预测略低。但这并不意味着市场是乐观的。

In recent years some scholars have argued that low long-term real interest rates reflect in part the impulse to hoard safe assets as tail risks—rare but highly costly events—grow more likely.

近年来，一些学者认为，长期的低实际利率在一定程度上反映了人们囤积安全资产的冲动，因为尾部风险发生的可能性更大了，尾部风险是很少发生，但代价高昂的事件。

After two years of a pandemic and with war raging in Europe, that thesis has never seemed so apposite.

在欧洲经历了两年的疫情和战争肆虐之后，这一论点似乎从未如此贴切。