经济学人下载:通货膨胀和股权收益(2)

There are competing theories for the inverse relationship; many date from the late 1970s and early 1980s.
相反关系中存在各种竞争理论；其中很多要追溯到20世纪70年代末至20世纪80年代。

A paper written by Franco Modigliani and Richard Cohn in 1979 put it down to "money illusion":
1979年，Franco Modigliani和Richard Cohn的一篇论文将其归因于“货币幻觉”：

rising inflation leads to falling stock prices because investors discount future earnings by reference to higher nominal bond yields.
通货膨胀上升导致股价下降，因为投资者根据较高名义债券收益率贴现未来收益。

The correct discount factor is a real yield (ie, excluding compensation for expected inflation).
正确的贴现因子是实际收益（例如，不包括预期通货膨胀的补偿）。

Other theories said that inflation is merely a reflection of deeper forces that hurt stock prices;
其他理论称，通货膨胀只不过是影响股价的更深层次因素的反应；

an overheating economy; rising uncertainty; political instability.
一种过热的经济；不断增长的不确定性；政治不稳定性。

In the decades since then, inflation has steadily declined. Stocks have re-rated.
在此之后的几十年中，通货膨胀稳步下降。股票重新评估。

Investors have been willing to pay an ever-higher price for a given stream of future earnings.
投资者一直愿意支付更高的价格来换取既定的未来收益流。

You might put this down to the Modigliani-Cohn effect in reverse, since nominal bond yields have also fallen.
你或许会反过来将它归因于Modigliani-Cohn效应，因为名义债券收益率也下降了。

But so too have long-term real bond yields. The real rate of interest needed to keep inflation stable is lower.
但长期实际债券收益率也是如此。保持通货膨胀稳定所需的实际利率更低。

Now for the headache. For the most part, financial markets reflect the view that inflation will remain low.
现在来看看让他们头疼的问题。在很大程度上，金融市场反映了对通货膨胀将保持低位的观点。

Nominal bond yields are negative in much of Europe and barely positive in America. In stockmarkets, there has for a while been a sharp divide.
欧洲大部分地区的名义债券收益率为负，而美国的则勉强为正。在股票市场，有一段时间出现了一个巨大分歧。

Companies that do well in disinflationary environments (technology, branded goods) are expensive;
在反通胀环境下表现良好的公司（科技、品牌商品）价格昂贵；

businesses that might do better in inflationary ones (commodities, real-estate and banking) have generally lagged behind.
而在通胀环境中表现更好的公司（日用品、房地产以及银行）则普遍落后了。

The immediate prospect is indeed for an excess of supply. The unemployment rate in America is close to 15%. Inflation is already falling.
眼下的前景确实是供应过剩。美国失业率接近15%。通胀已然正在下降。

Further out, though, the outlook for inflation is murkier. There is no shortage of pundits who say it is primed to pick up. They have a case.
然而从长远来看，通货膨胀的前景更加扑朔迷离。不乏有权威人士称，其已做好回升的准备。他们有一个证据。

Globalisation, a key reason for the secular decline in inflation, is reversing. Big companies are likely to emerge from the crisis with more pricing power.
通货膨胀长期下降的一个关键因素——全球化，正在逆转。大公司更有可能通过其更大的定价权摆脱危机。

The rise of populism in rich countries is hard to square with endlessly low inflation. Fiscal stimulus is in favour.
富裕国家民粹主义的崛起很难与无休止的低通胀相协调。财政刺激是有利的。

The more government debt piles up, the greater the temptation to try to inflate it away.
政府累积的负债越多，试图通过膨胀消除负债的诱惑就越大。

For all such speculation, it is far from clear whether, how fast and by how much inflation might rise.
对于所有这类推测，我们对于通货膨胀是否会上升，上升的速度以及上升的额度还不得而知。

A modest pickup might even be good for stock prices especially in Europe, where bourses are tilted towards the cyclical stocks most hurt by unduly low inflation.
小幅回升甚至可能对股价有利，尤其是在欧洲，那里的交易所倾向于那些因通胀过低而受影响最严重的周期性股票。

But it is foolish to believe that inflation will leave your stock portfolio unharmed--and too easy to forget the damage it can do.
但相信通胀不会对你的股票投资组合造成伤害是很愚蠢的，而且很容易就忘记了通胀所能造成的影响。