中国经济的增长--舞动的狮子

Finance & economics

财经板块

China’s growth (1) Lion dance

中国经济的增长（第一部分）--舞狮

China takes on Delta and its property developers at the same time

中国德尔塔毒株和房地产开发商两手抓

For such a small place, Singapore has exercised an outsized influence on China’s economy.

新加坡虽小，却对中国经济产生了巨大的影响。

The city-state proved to reformers in China that a government could open up the economy without losing control.

这个像一座城市一样大小的国家向中国的改革者证明了，政府可以在不失控的情况下开放经济。

“Society in Singapore is quite orderly,” said Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader, in 1992.

1992年，中国最高领导人邓小平同志曾说过“新加坡的社会非常有序。

“They managed things very strictly.

他们管理事情非常严格。

We ought to use their experience as a model and…manage things even better than they do.”

我们应该以他们的经验为榜样……并且做到青出于蓝胜于蓝。”

Unfortunately Singapore has not managed covid-19 as strictly as China would like.

不幸的是，新加坡对新冠肺炎的应对却不像中国那样严格。

A resident of China’s Fujian province, who recently returned from Singapore, tested positive earlier this month for the Delta variant.

中国一名最近从新加坡回国的福建居民本月早些时候被检测出感染了德尔塔毒株。

He is thought to have passed it on to his son, from whom it soon spread through his school.

据推测，他把病毒传给了自己的儿子，进而又在全校蔓延开来。

Fujian has now recorded over 200 cases since September 10th.

自9月10日以来，福建已出现200多例病例。

Exchanges between Singapore and China’s coastal provinces (the ancestral homelands for many Singaporeans) have brought many benefits.

新加坡与中国沿海省份(许多新加坡人的故乡)的交流好处良多。

But this outbreak belongs in the other column.

但这次疫情就属于另一种性质了。

In response, officials in Putian (a city with a population of 3m) and Xiamen (5m) have shut schools, bars and other high-risk venues.

为应对疫情，莆田(人口300万)和厦门(500万)的官员关闭了学校、酒吧和其他高危场所。

Economists worry that if the outbreak persists, it will disrupt travel and shopping during China’s week-long holiday beginning on October 1st.

经济学家担心，如果疫情持续，将影响中国10月1日开始的为期一周的假期旅游和购物。

That would delay the recovery from a similar outbreak that ended only last month.

还会推迟经济从上个月刚刚结束的另一场类似疫情中恢复。

The cost of that scare became clearer with the release of economic data on September 15th.

随着9月15日经济数据的公布，这种恐慌的代价显得更为清晰了。

One casualty was retail sales, which rose nationwide by only 2.5% (in nominal terms) in August, compared with a year earlier, far weaker than expected.

其中一个受影响的领域是零售额，与去年同期相比，8月份全国零售额仅增长了2.5%(按名义价值计算)，远远低于预期。

Based on the data so far, GDP in the third quarter is on course to shrink compared with the previous three months, suggests a “tracking” estimate by Morgan Stanley, a bank.

摩根史坦利银行的“追踪”预估表明，根据目前的数据，第三季度的GDP与前三个月相比正在萎缩。

Singapore’s strictly managed property market is another model China’s reformers often admire but have failed to emulate.

新加坡管理严格的房地产市场是另一个让中国改革者钦佩却未能效仿的领域。

But the government in Beijing is belatedly cracking down on indebted developers, imposing curbs on their borrowing, even as mortgage costs rise and potential homebuyers think twice.

北京政府正在缓缓打击负债累累的开发商，限制了他们的借贷，即便目前抵押贷款成本已经上升，潜在的购房者也在三思而行。

Property firms sold 17.6% less residential floor space in August than a year earlier, and the price of new homes fell in ten out of 70 big cities tracked by the National Bureau of Statistics.

8月份，房地产公司的住宅销售面积较上年同期减少了17.6%，国家统计局追踪的70个大城市中，有10个城市的新房价格出现下跌。

Developers are now less willing and less able to build.

开发商现在不太愿意也不太有能力建造房屋。

Investment in real estate was only 0.3% higher in August than a year ago.

8月份房地产投资仅比去年同期增长0.3%。

China’s exports have so far proved resilient: they were 25% higher in August than a year ago.

到目前为止，一切现象都表明中国的出口是有弹性的：八月份的出口比去年同期增长了25%。

Indeed, China’s manufacturers may have gained at the expense of countries that are struggling with worse covid-19 outbreaks of their own.

事实上，中国制造商所得到的可能就是与严重的新冠疫情作斗争的国家所失去的。

Moreover, for as long as inflation remains subdued, China has scope to ease monetary and fiscal policy to support growth.

此外，只要通胀保持温和，中国就有空间放松货币和财政政策以支持经济增长。

It may thus combine tight control of infections, property and other unruly industries with an easing of its macroeconomic stance, a juggling act characterised as “micro takes, macro gives” by analysts at Goldman Sachs, another bank.

因此，它可能结合了对传染病、房地产和其他不守规则行业的严格控制，同时放松宏观经济立场，另一家银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师将这种两者兼顾的行为称为“微观取用，宏观给予”。

The question is whether macro can give enough.

问题是，宏观经济能否提供足够的支持。

Analysts at China International Capital Corporation (CICC), an investment bank, point out that China’s official fiscal deficit has been negligible so far this year.

投资银行中国国际金融公司(CICC)的分析师指出，到目前为止，中国今年的官方财政赤字可以忽略不计。

The government therefore has room to spend more without revising its deficit target.

因此政府有空间在不修改赤字目标的情况下增加支出。

Sure enough, bond issuance picked up last month and the government’s deposits with banks fell.

果然，上个月债券发行回升，政府在银行的存款下降。

CICC reckons that China might increase spending on infrastructure at an annual rate of 5% in the last three months of the year, compared with the same period in 2019, before the pandemic.

中金公司认为，与2019年同期相比，中国在今年最后三个月可能会以每年5%的速度增加基础设施支出。

China’s rulers hope that tighter regulations will help make housing more affordable and a less dominant part of the economy.

中国政府希望，更严格的监管能有助于降低住房在经济中所占的主导地位。

It is part of the “new development dynamic” touted by Xi Jinping, China’s ruler.

这是中国领导人习近平所说的“新发展动力”的一部分。

But as this year wears on, China’s development pattern is beginning to look wearily familiar: weak consumption, strong exports and additional public investment to save the economy from past speculative excess.

但随着今年时间的推移，中国的发展模式开始让人感到熟悉：消费疲软、出口强劲、增加公共投资以拯救经济免于以往过度投机所带来的后果。

Whatever might be said for this growth dynamic, it is anything but new.

这种增长动力，绝非新鲜之事。