美联储的模糊“首选通胀指标”

Finance & economics

财经板块

America’s inflation indices: The price of accuracy

美国的通胀指数:准确性的代价

The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation is more benign but also more obscure

美联储的首选通胀指标更为温和，但也更为模糊

The federal reserve’s “preferred measure of inflation” is a phrase that often crops up in reporting on the American economy.

在有关美国经济的报道中，经常会出现一个短语，那就是美联储的“首选通胀指标”。

It stands in for a verbose official name: the personal-consumption-expenditures price index (PCEPI).

它代指一个冗长的官方名称：个人消费支出价格指数(PCEPI)。

Most discussion of inflation, however, focuses on its better-known and pithier relative, the consumer-price index (CPI).

然而，大多数关于通货膨胀的讨论都集中在更广为人知、更简明的相关数据上，即消费者价格指数(CPI)。

That usually does not matter much.

通常情况下，这一点无关紧要。

But the gap between CPI and PCEPI has recently widened, hitting 2 percentage points in April, the largest divergence since 1981.

但CPI和PCEPI之间的差距最近有所扩大，4月份时达到了2个百分点，这是1981年以来的最大差距。

So while headlines blare out that CPI inflation is running at more than 8% annually, it is just over 6% in the PCEPI world.

因此，当新闻头条大肆宣扬CPI年通胀率超过8%时，PCEPI年通胀率仅略高于6%。

To be sure, the lower PCEPI figure is not cause for celebration.

可以肯定的是，较低的PCEPI数据并不值得庆祝。

Just like CPI, it is also at a four-decade high.

与CPI一样，它也处于40年来的最高水平。

But it is nonetheless instructive to consider why the gap has grown so wide.

但尽管如此，思考一下为什么差距会变得如此之大，仍然是有启发意义的。

The simple explanation is weighting.

简单的解释是加权。

Housing, for instance, is 33% of CPI but just 16% of PCEPI.

例如，住房占CPI的33%，但仅占PCEPI的16%。

Petrol also has a slightly higher share in CPI.

汽油在CPI中的占比也略高一些。

The PCEPI gauge is broader, encompassing things purchased on behalf of consumers (such as medical care, even if paid for by the government or an employer).

PCEPI指标范围更广，涵盖代表消费者购买的物品(如医疗保健，即使是由政府或雇主支付的也包括在内)。

When rents and oil prices soar, CPI inflation tends to outstrip PCEPI inflation.

当租金和油价飙升时，CPI通胀率往往会超过PCEPI通胀率。

The Fed prefers PCEPI because it reflects how money is actually spent.

美联储更喜欢PCEPI，因为它反映了资金的实际使用情况。

If people stop buying expensive cars and spend more on bus tickets, that shift shows up in PCEPI; CPI, by contrast, just registers the higher car prices.

如果人们停止购买昂贵的汽车，在公交车票上花更多钱，这种转变就会在PCEPI中显示出来；相比之下，CPI只会显示汽车价格上涨。

“CPI doesn’t allow for immediate substitution, which exacerbates the divergence,” says Julie Smith of Lafayette College.

“CPI不会将即时的置换计算在内，这就会导致差距扩大，”拉斐特学院的朱莉·史密斯说。

In theory that might tempt the Fed to highlight PCEPI now.

从理论上讲，这可能会诱使美联储现在强调PCEPI。

The latest figures will due out on June 30th, as we went to press.

最新的数据将于我们交付印刷时，即6月30日公布。

Core PCEPI (excluding food and energy) has expected to have risen by 0.4% in May, compared with April, slower than the 0.6% jump in CPI.

5月份核心PCEPI(不包括食品和能源)预计较4月份上涨0.4%，低于CPI 0.6%的涨幅。

But Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chairman, instead highlighted CPI when explaining the central bank’s jumbo interest-rate rise on June 15th.

但美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在解释央行6月15日大幅加息的原因时，反而强调了CPI。

Partly that is because CPI was published just before its decision.

这在一定程度上是因为CPI是在其决定之前发布的。

The fact that CPI is more widely discussed, even if less accurate, also recommends it.

即使CPI准确性较低，但它能得到更广泛的讨论，这也是一个原因。

The central bank’s concern is that inflation expectations are becoming unmoored.

央行担心的是，通胀预期正在失控。

If people pay more attention to CPI, the Fed will feel obliged to do so too.

如果人们更加关注CPI，美联储也会觉得有义务这样做。