如何避免能源配给?（下）

Natural gas, like petrol, is also an essential good.

天然气和汽油一样，也是一种必不可少的商品。

But here, too, new research finds that consumers cut back when prices are higher.

但新的研究也发现，当天然气价格上涨时，消费者会减少购买。

Maximilian Auffhammer of the University of California, Berkeley, and Edward Rubin of the University of Oregon looked at 300m energy bills in California.

加州大学伯克利分校的马克西米利安·奥夫哈默和俄勒冈大学的爱德华·鲁宾研究了加州3亿的能源账单。

In some parts of the golden state similar households are supplied by two different gas firms, which employ different price-adjustment mechanisms—providing the researchers with something akin to the treatment and control groups that are often used in medical research.

在这个黄金州的一些地区中，同类家庭的天然气是由两家不同公司供应的，这两家公司采用的价格调整机制不同，为研究人员提供了类似于医学研究中经常使用的治疗组和控制组的研究对象。

They established that a 10% rise in gas prices led to an average 2% drop in consumption.

他们证实，天然气价格每上涨10%，消费量就会平均下降2%。

An interesting variation hid behind these figures.

这些数字背后隐藏着一个有趣的变化。

During summer months, there was hardly any response to prices; in winter, households cut use by 4%.

在夏季，人们对价格变化几乎无动于衷；但在冬季，家庭的天然气消耗量则会随价格上涨下降4%。

California’s price changes were small compared with those Europe is facing.

加州的价格变化与欧洲的相比可谓是小巫见大巫。

How households respond to enormous price shocks has rarely been studied, owing to a lack of real-world data.

由于缺乏真实数据，很少有人研究家庭是如何应对巨大价格冲击的。

One exception is that produced by Ukraine, which Anna Alberini of the University of Maryland and co-authors have studied, looking at price rises in 2015 after subsidies were cut.

对乌克兰的一项研究是一个例外，马里兰大学的安娜·阿尔贝里尼和其合著者研究了该国2015年削减补贴后的价格上涨情况。

They found that among households that did not invest in better heating or insulation a doubling of prices led to a 16% decline in consumption.

他们发现，价格翻倍上涨时，没有买更好的取暖或隔热材料的家庭的消费量会下降16%。

Policies to help households cope with high prices have also been studied—and the results are bad news for politicians capping prices.

他们还研究了帮助家庭应对高价格的政策--研究结果对限制价格的政客们来说是个坏消息。

In California, where a government programme cut the marginal price of gas for poor households by 20%, households raised their consumption by 8.5% over the next year to 18 months.

在加利福尼亚州，一项政府计划将贫困家庭的天然气边际价格降低了20%，当地家庭的天然气消费量在随后的一年至一年半内上升了8.5%。

Ukraine has found a better way to help.

乌克兰已经找到了一种更好的方式来帮助他们。

Households struggling to pay their bills can apply for a cash transfer.

那就是无力支付账单的家庭可以申请现金转移。

Since such a transfer is unrelated to consumption, it preserves the incentive for shorter showers, and thus does not blunt the effect of high prices on gas use.

由于这种转移与消费无关，所以不会降低家庭缩短洗澡时间的积极性，因此也不会削弱高价格对天然气消耗的影响。

Another option is a halfway house between a price cap and a transfer.

另一种选择是设定价格上限和申请现金转移之间的折中方案。

An Austrian state recently introduced a discount on the first 80% of a typical household’s consumption, which means people retain an incentive to cut back on anything over that.

奥地利的一个州最近对普通家庭前80%的消费量实行了折扣，这意味着人们对于削减任何超过这一比例的消费仍然有积极性。

Households are not the only consumers of gas.

并非只有家庭会消耗天然气。

Early in the war, manufacturers and agricultural producers argued against doing anything that might risk supplies, since production processes took time to alter and output losses could cascade through the economy.

在战争早期，由于生产过程的变化需要时间，再加上产出损失可能会影响整个经济，制造商和农业生产者反对采取任何可能危及供应的行动。

But initial evidence from the German dairy and fertiliser industries suggests that even heavy users respond to higher prices.

但来自德国乳制品和化肥工业的初步证据表明，即使是重度消费者也会对价格上涨做出反应。

Farmers have switched from gas to oil heating; ammonia, fertiliser’s gas-intensive ingredient, is now imported instead of being made locally.

农民们已经从使用天然气改为使用石油取暖；化肥的天然气密集型原料--氨现在也是用进口的，而不是本地生产的。

Over time, households and industry will adapt more to higher prices, meaning that with every passing month demand for gas will fall.

随着时间的推移，家庭和工业会在更大程度上适应更高的价格，这意味着天然气需求将逐月下降。

If Europe’s politicians are serious about cutting gas use, they should heed the latest research and avoid price caps.

如果欧洲的政客们真的想减少天然气消耗，他们应该听从最新研究的建议，避免设定价格上限。

There is even a self-interested case for doing so.

这样做甚至对他们自身有利。

Without high prices to encourage households and industry to cut back on their energy consumption, governments will have to find ways other than the price mechanism to allocate scarce resources.

因为如果没有高价格来刺激家庭和工业减少能源消耗，政府将不得不寻找价格机制以外的方法来配置稀缺资源。

Who wants to be the politician to have introduced rationing?

谁会想要成为引入定量配给制度的政治家呢？