经济学人下载:黑暗冬季惨剧--"美国能源之都"瘫痪(2)

The short answer is that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the grid, did not properly forecast the demand for energy as a result of the storm. Some say that this was nearly impossible to predict, but there were warnings of the severity of the coming weather in the preceding week, and ERCOT’s projections were notably short. Brownouts last summer had already demonstrated the grid’s lack of excess capacity, says George O’Leary of Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co (TPH), an energy investment bank. 

简而言之，运营电网的得克萨斯州电力可靠性协会(ERCOT)没有正确预测暴风雪所引发的能源需求。有人说，这几乎是不可能预测的，但应该在前一周对未来天气的严重性提出预警，而得克萨斯州电力可靠性协会显然预测不足。能源投资银行TPH的乔治·奥利里表示，去年夏天的停电已经证明了电网的备用容量不足。

Many Republican politicians were quick to blame renewable energy sources, such as wind power, for the blackouts, but that is not fair. Some wind turbines did indeed freeze, but natural gas, which accounts for around half of the state’s electricity generation, was the primary reason for the shortfall. Plants broke down, as did the gas supply chain and pipelines. The cold also caused a reactor at one of the state’s two nuclear plants to go offline. Transmission lines may have also iced up, says Wade Schauer of Wood Mackenzie, a research firm. In short, Texas experienced a perfect storm of equipment failure. 

许多共和党政客很快将风力发电等可再生能源作为停电的罪魁祸首，但这并不公平。一些风力涡轮机确实冻结了，但占得州发电量一半左右的天然气是造成电力短缺的主要原因。发电厂倒闭，天然气供应链和管道也垮了。寒潮还导致得州两座核电站中的一个核反应堆关闭。伍德麦肯兹研究公司的韦德·肖尔表示，输电线路可能也结冰了。简而言之，得州设备接连出现故障，祸不单行。

Some of the blame falls on the unique design of the electricity market in Texas. Of America’s 48 contiguous states, it is the only one with its own stand-alone electricity grid—the Texas Interconnection. This means that when power generators fail, the state cannot import electricity from outside its borders. 

还有些人认为得州电力市场的独特设计才是罪魁祸首。在美国48个毗邻的州中，得州是唯一一个拥有自己独立电网（得州电网）的州。这意味着，当发电系统发生故障时，得州不能从其他州输入电力。