欧洲为什么害怕量化紧缩？（下）

In parts of Europe’s financial system, QT looks increasingly urgent.

在欧洲部分金融体系中，QT看起来越来越紧迫。

The continent’s financial firms borrow and lend 11.5trn euros ($12trn) every year in its “repo” markets, in which the firms post bonds as collateral in return for short-term funding.

欧洲大陆的金融公司每年会在其回购市场借贷11.5万亿欧元(12万亿美元)。在回购市场上，这些公司可以将债券作为抵押品，以换取短期资金。

The market is so big in part because policymakers encouraged its growth in the early days of the euro zone, hoping that German and Greek bonds would change hands on the same terms.

这个市场之所以如此庞大，部分原因是政策制定者在欧元区成立初期曾鼓励其发展，希望德国和希腊债券能以相同的条件易手。

This dream of a uniform repo market died during Europe’s debt crisis a decade ago, when companies thought Irish and Portuguese bonds were so risky that they stopped swapping them altogether, ultimately widening spreads.

这种统一回购市场的梦想在10年前的欧债危机期间破灭了，当时各企业认为爱尔兰和葡萄牙的债券风险太大，于是它们完全停止了债券交换，最终导致差距扩大。

But it has left legions of lightly regulated traders ravenous for German bunds.

但这使得大批监管宽松的交易员对德国国债如饥似渴。

Since 2015 the ECB has scooped up bonds, starving these traders of collateral.

2015年以来，欧洲央行一直在大举买入债券，导致这些交易员缺乏抵押品。

Recent rate rises have worsened the shortage.

最近的加息又加剧了这种短缺。

Higher rates push down bond prices.

更高的利率压低了债券价格。

Because it is the value of bonds which matters when posting collateral, a given transaction now requires more bonds.

由于在提供抵押品时，债券的价值才是最重要的，所以特定交易现在需要更多债券。

The higher rates go, the worse the problem.

利率越高，问题就越严重。

German bonds have become so scarce that traders betting on yields have bid up their price.

德国债券变得如此稀缺，以至于押注收益率的交易员抬高了它们的价格。

In September yields on some short-term bonds, half of which are on the ECB’s balance-sheet, fell 1.1 percentage points below interbank interest rates, to their lowest since the euro-zone crisis.

9月份，一些短期债券(其中一半在欧洲央行的资产负债表上)的收益率比银行间利率低了1.1个百分点，降至欧元区危机以来的最低水平。

Though high rates in Italy might mess with monetary policy, cheap borrowing in Germany could undermine the inflation fight.

尽管意大利的高利率可能会扰乱货币政策，但德国的低息借贷可能会削弱对抗通胀的能力。

The ECB’s policymakers are thus caught in something of a bind.

因此，欧洲央行的政策制定者陷入了某种困境。

Rapid QT would release short-term German bunds from its balance-sheet, ease Europe’s shortage of collateral and placate inflation hawks.

快速QT会从德国资产负债表中释放短期国债，缓解欧洲抵押品短缺的问题，并安抚通胀鹰派。

But it would also threaten to widen spreads on long-term debt that—in a nightmare scenario like the euro-zone crisis—could be pushed still wider by traders turned off by risky peripheral collateral.

但它也有可能会扩大长期债务的差距，就像欧元区危机那样的噩梦一样，被高风险的外围抵押品吓跑的交易员可能会导致差距进一步扩大。

Delaying QT protects the periphery.

推迟QT可以保护外围。

It does so at the cost of raising the financial stakes.

不过这样的代价是增加金融风险。