津反对党主席推迟签署开谈协议

津巴布韦反对党“争取民主变革运动”的创始人兼主席茨万吉拉伊推迟签署一个初步协议。这个协议将为反对党跟津巴布韦总统穆加贝的“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”举行正式会谈铺平道路。

Morgan Tsvangirai is holding out for the appointment of a second mediator appointed by the African Union to work alongside South African President Thabo Mbeki who is acting as mediator during formal negotiations with Mr. Mugabe's ZANU-PF. Mr. Mbeki was last year mandated by the Southern African Development Community to mediate talks between the MDC and ZANU-PF.

茨万吉拉伊坚持让非洲联盟指定第二位调停人，跟第一位调停人、南非总统姆贝基一道为津巴布韦反对党跟执政党“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”的正式会谈进行斡旋。去年，南部非洲发展共同体授权姆贝基充当“争取民主变革运动”和“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”之间的调停人。

An African diplomat close to the preparatory talks told VOA that Tsvangirai believes that the chairperson of the African Union Commission, Jean Ping, promised to appoint a second mediator. He says Tsvangirai expects this appointment to be announced following a meeting Friday between Ping and Mr. Mbeki in Pretoria.

一位了解预备会谈详情的非洲外交官对美国之音记者说，茨万吉拉伊认为，非洲联盟委员会主席让.平保证指定第二位调停人。他说，茨万吉拉伊期望这一任命在让.平跟姆贝基星期五在比勒陀利亚会谈之后宣布。

But the African diplomat tells VOA that the African Union has made no such commitment, that the decision of the AU summit last month to endorse the mediation of Mr.. Mbeki as mandated by the Southern Africa Development Community, still stands.

不过，这位非洲外交官对美国之音说，非洲联盟并没有做出这样的承诺，而且上个月非盟首脑会议做出的支持“南部非洲发展共同体”授权姆贝基做为调停人的决定仍然有效。

The preparatory talks are expected to produce a preliminary agreement which will govern formal negotiations between both factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change and ZANU-PF.

预计，预备性会谈将产生一项初步协议，用于指导津巴布韦反对党“争取民主变革运动”和执政党“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”之间的正式会谈。

In addition the agreement is expected to include, at Tsvangirai's request, an interim commitment on the cessation of violence during formal talks. Despite the fact that violent attacks against opposition supporters have decreased, they still occur. Just this week a large funeral was held for an MDC driver who was brutally tortured before being killed.

此外，应茨万吉拉伊的要求，这项初步协议预计还包括在举行正式会谈期间停止暴力的临时承诺。尽管针对反对党支持者的暴力袭击已经减少，但是仍然时有发生。就在这个星期，反对党支持者为“争取民主变革运动”的一位司机举行了大规模葬礼。这个司机在被杀害之前受到残酷折磨。

When formal talks get under way they are likely to focus on the establishment of a transitional Government of National Unity and the positions in that government of opposition leaders, including Morgan Tsvangirai.

在正式会谈举行期间，双方可能会把重点放在建立民主团结过渡政府以及茨万吉拉伊等反对党领导人在过渡政府里的位置等问题上。

The MDC holds the view that Tsvangirai should head any transitional government, while President Mugabe wants the MDC to recognize his re-election as president of Zimbabwe in a controversial election last month which was boycotted by the MDC.

“争取民主变革运动”认为，茨万吉拉伊应该担任过渡政府的领袖，而穆加贝希望“争取民主变革运动”承认他在上个月有争议的选举中再次当选了津巴布韦总统。“争取民主变革运动”抵制了那次选举的决选。

Analysts say that any formal agreements will have to win the support of the security establishment in Zimbabwe, which is widely believed to be the power behind Mr. Mugabe.

分析人士认为，任何正式协议都必须赢得津巴布韦安全机构的支持。人们普遍认为，津巴布韦安全机构是穆加贝依靠的力量。

Independent analyst Chris Maroleng tells VOA the mediator will have to find a way to reassure this group that they will not be held accountable for their actions by a future transitional government.

独立分析人士克里斯.马罗利恩对美国之音说，调停人必须找到一种方式，让安全机构放心，未来的过渡政府不会让他们为自己的行为承担责任。

"I believe it is the insecurity that is felt by these elements in the state security apparatus that has created a behavior in them which makes them active spoilers when faced with the prospects of change. Because they might feel that the cost involved in a transition would result in a loss of status, a loss of access, and indeed possible prosecution if a transition is to occur," said Maroleng.

马罗利恩说：“我认为，国家安全机构一些人的不安全感使他们在面对未来的改变时成为积极的破坏者。因为，他们可能觉得变革会导致地位的丧失，权限的丧生，而且一旦发生变革，还可能受到起诉。”

It is possible that if, following his meeting with Mr. Mbeki, the African Union's Jean Ping is able to reassure Morgan Tsvangirai that Mr. Mbeki can manage the mediaiton on his own, the signing of the preliminary agreement could take place within days. If so, formal talks may get under way as early as next week.

非盟的让.平跟姆贝基会晤之后，假如他能够让茨万吉拉伊相信姆贝基自己就能协调好双方的正式会谈，那么这项初步协议就会在几天之内签署。这样的话，正式会谈最早可能在下星期举行。