预言能力最强的经济学家替你分析

And he was just incredulous that there could be another bubble so close to the stock-market bubble. But, of course, they were really interrelated. It was almost like the same bubble, because we never really had the fallout from the bursting of the NASDAQ bubble.We simply replaced one bubble with a bigger bubble, and we postponed the consequences of the unwinding of the imbalances until right now. And, of course, we're still trying to postpone it.But I think, at this point, the damage has been so great and the problems are now so huge that I don't think there's another economic rabbit they can pull out of their hat at this point. We're just going to have to face it now.

显然他认为十年之内发生两次泡沫有些不可思议，但事实上这两个泡沫的关联性很强，你完全可以把它们看作一个泡沫。因为当纳斯达克泡沫破灭后，我们并没有被允许出现一次像样的经济衰退，而是用一个更大的房市泡沫取而代之，从而把后果或债务的清偿拖到日后。虽然现在我们仍然试图在做同样的事情，但这次市场受到的伤害如此严重，问题如此巨大，以致很难再找出一个拖延的手段了。因此我们不得不面对现实。

And, basically, what happened is, why did we have a stock-market bubble?We had a stock-market bubble because the Federal Reserve was too easy; they were too loose in the 1990s. Interest rates were too low, we created too much money, and that fed the investments in the stock market.And we had a lot of malinvestments. Companies were created that never should have existed. They were created not because they could generate a profit, but because they could go public, because investors wanted these stocks. It didn't matter that they couldn't make money.

为什么会有股市泡沫？因为美联储在1990年代的货币政策过于宽松，利率太低，创造出了过多的货币。这推动了股票市场的投资，其中有许多是不良投资。在这期间出现了许多没有盈利能力，原本不应该存在的公司。这些公司之所以能成立，不是因为它们有本事通过经营赚钱，而是因为它们能上市，因为投资者特别想要股票，而根本不在意这些公司能不能赚钱。

So what did they do? They took land, labor, and capital; they took all the factors for production, and they combined them in ways that actually destroyed value.But it didn't matter, because these companies got financing. The Fed made the financing cheap, so they were able to flourish. They were able to flourish despite the fact that they were losing money. The saying used to be, they'd lose money on every sale but they'd make it up on volume.And, so, but as long as they could raise money. And when I was working at Euro Pacific Capital, I would see deals and people would send me prospectuses on new companies they wanted to fund.

公司的人做了什么？他们把土地、劳动力、厂房集聚在一起，虽然这一组合未必合适，甚至降低了生产能力，但是却取得了融资的资格，美联储的货币政策使得融资非常便利。这样他们就兴旺了，虽然一直在做赔钱的买卖，但还是能兴旺。不是有句俗话吗：“卖一件亏一件，但是赚得盆盈钵满”（We lose money on every sale, but make it up in volume）【台下大笑】我很清楚这些人所关心的只是能否融资，我明白这些是因为那时我还是欧洲太平洋公司的调研部经理，分析公司的盈利能力和发展前景是我的工作。

I remember one I got from a small Internet company that was, I don't remember. They were - I don't know if it was a browser or whatever they were, or a service where you go on the Internet, a provider. I don't even remember what they did.But it was a small start-up, and they had their prospectus and they were coming around looking to raise money. And they were trying to raise, I don't know, five or ten million dollars. They weren't public yet. But they were selling a little small piece of their company, so they were valuing their company at about fifty million dollars.Now, these guys were in their twenties. They probably started the company less than a year ago. I remember saying, "Well, how could you possibly think your business is worth fifty million dollars?"I said, "You have no assets, you've got no revenues, you've got no customers. It's like, you don't have anything. I could recreate your entire business from scratch myself for next to nothing. And yet you want me to pay you five million dollars to get five percent of this thing? Why would I do that?"

那时我遇到了一家小型公司，好像是做浏览器还是防火墙什么的……具体是做什么的我忘了，总之是一家很小的公司，他们想募集500万到1000 万美元的资金，那时还没有上市。这么小的一家公司，却将自己的价值标记为5000万美元。他们的总裁是一个20岁出头的年轻人，成立这家公司可能还不到一年的时间。我问他：“你凭什么认为你的公司值5000万美元？你们没有资产，没有收入，甚至没有客户！【台下笑】你们什么也没有......要知道，我什么也不需要，就可以自己重新组建你们现在的一切，你想让我付500万美元，就是为了得到你们10%的股本？为什么我要这么做？”

And all they kept telling us, "Well, you don't understand, we're going to go public, and you're going to make a lot of money."And I said, "You think you're going to find people to pay even more than this in a public offer? How are you ever going to make any money?"But that was the concept. And he said, "Well, you know, you don't understand how the stock market works." I was like, "I understand how business works and I understand that you guys are not worth fifty million dollars because you started an Internet company last week."But this is how it was working for a while. It was crazy.

那小伙子说：“你不知道，我们有办法上市。【台下笑】能赚到许多钱。”我问他：“你的意思是说在公开市场上有人会愿意出更高的价钱买你们的股票？这可能吗？人们甚至都不知道你们是怎样盈利的。”他们其实就是在炒作概念，那小伙子过了一会儿看着我说：“你不懂股票。”【台下大笑】我当然懂股票，也懂经营，我知道你们这些人加在一起不值5000万美元，因为你们上周才成立的这家互联网公司。这就是那段时间发生的事，非常疯狂。