预言能力最强的经济学家替你分析

But I got the same things. During the real-estate bubble, I remember, I was renting houses - and I'm still renting my house now in Connecticut - and I would go and I would go to houses for rent.And I remember one time I went and there was a house for rent. I looked at it and the realtor was there. And, apparently, the person who was renting it out was an investor who just bought the place.And I asked them what was the rent. I forget what it was. Maybe it was $4,000 a month, whatever it was for this place. And I knew, I said, "Well, what'd the guy pay for this? What'd he pay?" I said, "Well, how could he make any money renting it out to me? Isn't this going to lose money? Doesn't he have negative cash flow?"He said, "Well, yeah, he loses a couple thousand dollars a month." And I said to him, "But you recommended this as an investment?" He said, "Yeah."

在房市泡沫中，我也有类似经历。你们知道，我一直选择租房，现在还在康涅迪克州租房子住。我找到了一幢比较中意的房子，想谈谈房租。很明显，业主刚刚买下这幢房子用来投资。我问他租金是多少，可能是每月4000美元吧，具体我也记不清了。我还很好奇地问他买这幢房子的月供以及其他开销加在一起大约多少，问他为什么要租给我，这真的是一笔合算的投资吗？还是每月会有负的现金流？他说：“是的，即使租给你我每月也要多支出几千美元。”【台下大笑】

But why would you recommend, as an investment property, a property that has a negative cash flow? Why would you have him buy it?"And he said, "Well, you don't understand, this property's going to appreciate. This property could double in the next couple years."And I said, "Why? Why would it double? You can't even cash flow it positive at the price it's at now. How's it going to go up in value?"And I said, "Real estate is a function of rents." And then the guy said to me - same thing - he said, "You don't understand real estate." He was telling me that rents don't matter to real estate.Just like when I was telling people to buy stocks, they were telling me dividends don't matter. I'm buying this stock because it's going to go up. Well, why should it go up? It doesn't even pay a dividend. Who would buy it?

然后我问他，你真的认为这是一项“投资”？一个每月带给你负现金流的东西，你还称它为“资产”？为什么你要买这幢房子？“你不懂，”业主说：“这房子能升值，过几年它的价格就会翻倍。”我问他“为什么，凭什么能翻倍？你甚至现在都不能用它来覆盖你的成本，让现金流为正。凭什么它会升值？”我告诉他房价应该是关于房租的函数，可他望着我说：“你不懂房地产。”【台下大笑】他认为房租多少无所谓，正如那些股票投资者认为公司分红多少无所谓一个道理。股民都认为股票会涨，可是公司不分红，股票凭什么会涨？谁会买这些东西？

I did the same thing, when I rented my apartment. After I got divorced, I was renting an apartment in Stamford, and — beautiful apartment, right on the water. I had my boat there. Beautiful views of the Sound. Right on the corner.Great unit, beautiful building. I had a concierge. It had a pool; it had covered parking; it was a security building; it had racquetball courts, had a gym with a trainer on staff; a lot of amenities.Right next door, there were maybe 20-year-old townhomes for sale. And I went to one of the open houses just for kicks.And there was a unit on sale, whatever they wanted, five or six hundred thousand dollars for this unit, that was about the same square footage as what I was renting, but it had no view of the water; it was dark, it was old, there was no security; it had none of the amenities. Yet the property taxes and maintenance fees alone were like a thousand dollars a month.

我在斯坦福也租过房子。非常漂亮的公寓，可以看见美丽的海景和日落，公寓的设施很齐全，有游泳池、停车场、壁球馆、健身房……什么都有，保安措施也做得很到位。而它的隔壁是一幢20多年的又破又旧的房子正在挂牌出售，要买下这幢房子，月供和隔壁我租的那间的租金相差无几，每月四五千美元，但这里看不见海景，没有保安措施，什么附属设施也没有，而光物业税与维护的费用可能每月就超过1000美元。

And by the time I would have paid the mortgage, if that's how I financed it, I would have been spending more money per month to live in one of these little places than this really nice apartment that I was renting, right next door.And I asked the realtor, I said, "Why would anybody buy this place? You can just rent right next door. There's more units available; I know, I just rented." And the lady said to me, "Well, but when you rent, when you move out, you're not going to have any equity."I said, "Well, what do you mean?" She says, "Well, when you buy this property, then it appreciates, and then you can sell it when you move out and you make money."And I said, "Well, why the hell should it appreciate? Didn't you understand? It's already overpriced; you can rent right next door. Why should it go up?" And she said, "Well, that's how real estate works."

因此如果真要贷款买下这幢破房子，每月的开销肯定比隔壁那间好房子的租金要高。我问房产经纪人：“你认为会有人买这幢破房子吗？隔壁那间要好得多，我知道的，因为我就在隔壁租着住。”那位女士说：“你可以租，但是哪天你搬出去，你不会得到任何资产。”我问她：“你什么意思？”她说：“你如果把房子买下来，那么等它升值以后再搬出去把房子卖了，就可以赚钱。”我问：“为什么它会升值？你不明白吗，它的价格已经被高估了，因为你可以住隔壁，那幢房子比这个好得多。”【台下笑】她说：“房价本来就是只升不降的。”【台下大笑】

I said, "So, you mean the way real estate works is I have to sacrifice; I have to turn down the opportunity to live in a really nice place; I live in this dump for a while and because I did that, I make money. And somebody else is going to come to me a year or two from now and overpay by even more and say, 'I don't want to live in that nice place next door, I'd rather pay more to live here because this is going to appreciate'."And they totally forgot what real estate meant. Real estate's a place to live. But everybody thought it was going to go up, so they were all crazed.

我想她的意思是说，我应该牺牲自己住隔壁好房子的机会，然后在这间破旧不堪的房子里住一段时间，只要熬过这段时间，我就能赚到钱。一两年以后就会有人来主动登门对你说：“我也不想住隔壁那间好房子，我愿意出更高的价格买下你现在这件破房子，因为它会升值！”这些人完全忘记了房子的根本作用是什么。房子是用来让人住的。然而非常奇怪的是，每个人都以为房子会永远升值。