印度人口20年超过中国

As the world hits the 7 billion population mark, much attention is focused on India, which will surpass China to become the world’s most populous country in less than two decades.

世界人口已经攀升到70亿的阶层，许多人把注意焦点集中于印度。印度的人口将于20年内超越中国，成为全世界人口最多的国家。

The population growth will mean a nation full of working-age youth, which economists say could allow the already booming economy to maintain momentum. But educating this next generation, keeping it healthy and employed also could be a steep challenge.

人口的增长，意味着这个国家将充满着年轻职工的族群。经济学家说，这个现象，将使它蓬勃发展中的经济，继续停留在优势的状况中。但是，对下一代的教育，以及健康的维护和工作的机会，也将成为印度一项严峻的挑战。

Thirty-year-old Ravinder Pande works as a chauffeur for a businessman in New Delhi earning $200 a month. He has migrated to the Indian capital from neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, which the United Nations believes will be home to the world’s 7 billionth baby, born on October 31st.

今年30岁的拉文德尔·潘德的工作，是新德里一名商人的司机。他月入200美元。潘德是从临近新德里的北方邦迁来新德里的。联合国当局认为，世界上第70亿名新生人口的婴儿，会是于今年10月31日，诞生在北方邦潘德老家附近的村落里。

Pande said he made virtually no money working on the small farm he owned and could not find any other work close to his village.

潘德说，他在老家自己的一块狭小农田里工作，根本赚不到钱。而且在他老家附近一带，也找不到其它工作。

Need for skilled manpower

With nearly 200 million people, Uttar Pradesh is one of India’s most crowded and impoverished states, with few industries.

印度北方邦人口将近2亿，是印度人口最拥挤，也是最贫困的几个邦中之一。

Fortunately for Pande, an economy racing ahead at about eight percent is creating new jobs in emerging hubs like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore.

几乎没有什么工业。潘德算是幸运的。印度8%的经济增长率，为德里，孟买和班加罗尔等新兴城市创造了新的工作机会。

Chandrajit Banerjee heads the Confederation of Indian Industry.

印度工业联盟主席班纳吉说：

“There will be a demand for skilled manpower in every level, starting from a white collar right down to whatever you need, be it a carpenter to an auto mechanic to a driver… you have a whole range of requirements that are coming up and shall come up over a period of time,” said Banerjee.

“我们将有技术人力方面的需求，上自白领阶级，下至你需要的任何技术人工，包括木匠，汽车技术工，到司机。这整个需求的范围，经过一段时期后，将逐渐呈现出来。”

These jobs are critically needed in a country expected to hit the one-and-half-billion mark around 2025. It will be one of the world’s youngest countries. By the end of the decade the average age of an Indian will be 29. This “youth bulge” will last until 2050.

对于一个人口预计将于2025年增加至15亿的国家来说，这些工作都是非常急迫的。到这个10年结束之际，印度将是世界最年轻的国家之一，印度人口的平均年龄将是29岁。这项年轻人兴起的现象，将持续到2050年。

Services versus manufacturing

Economists say this is a chance for India to reap what is called a “demographic dividend” - an opportunity to harness the skills and talents of young people in a growing economy at a time when most countries have aging populations.

经济学家说，这正是当大部分国家面临人口老化问题之际，印度坐收“人口利益”的时机。印度可以利用这个时机，在经济成长中培养富有技术与人才的年轻人。

However there are huge concerns. Economists say current rates of growth, although high, may not create enough jobs. The country will add a staggering 10 million people to the workforce every year, in the next two decades.

但是，印度也面临着一个严重的问题。经济学家说，目前印度的经济增长率固然很高，却未必能创造出足够的工作，以应付未来20年中，每年增长1000万劳动人口的需要。

Well known Indian author and columnist Gurcharan Das said the farming sector, where two thirds of the country works, is in a state of decline and earnings are meager.

印度著名专栏作家古查兰·达斯说，占印度劳动人口三分之二的农业人口，目前正处人数下降，收入微薄的状态。