印度人口20年超过中国

The services sector, led by information technology, is fueling India’s boom, but not adding jobs on the scale that is needed.

而服务业方面，由于资讯科技的引导，成为印度经济兴起的助力。但是没能够根据发展规模的需要，增加必需的就业人数。

“What is concerning is that our economy is fired by services, not manufacturing. At least it is not the low-tech labor intensive manufacturing, which creates lots and lots of jobs, for example as China is doing or other counties in Eastern and South East Asia have done. Our real challenge is to creating a manufacturing and industrial revolution. We need to create far more jobs and you cannot expect services alone to do that,” said Das.

达斯说：“现在令人担心的问题是，我们的经济靠服务业成长，而不是制造业。至少现今的制造业，还不属于低科技的劳力密集的制造业。而那种制造业创造了很多很多的工作，就像中国和其它东南亚国家一样。我们真正的挑战，是开启制造业和工业革命。我们必需创造更多的工作。你不能指望单靠服务业来创造出这么多的机会。”

Other key challenges lie ahead. The public education system is not only failing to keep pace with surging demand, but is often of poor quality. This has led to fears that much of this young workforce will not gain the skills needed to power the economy.

印度眼前还有其它挑战。公共教育系统非但不足以跟上发展的步调，品质也很低落。这个问题使人担心这些年轻的劳动族群，将无法获得推进经济必需的技术。

For example, chauffeur Pande said he wants his two children to acquire skills that will help them do better jobs than driving. But he has left them behind in the village because he cannot afford housing for his family in the city.

例如，作为司机的潘德说，他希望他的两个孩子能学到技术，让他们找到比司机更好的工作。但是他目前只有把他们留在乡下，因为他供不起一家人都住在城里。

Pande is not optimistic about how they will fare in the village. He said teachers often do not take classes in the village school. He is unsure if they will achieve success in their studies or get opportunity to tap their talents.

潘德对他的家人在乡间的境遇，不敢抱乐观的期望。他说：教师通常不愿到乡下的学校里教书。他不敢指望他的孩子经由那样的学习，能有收获。或者能发挥出他们的天赋。

Cultivating vocational skills

The Confederation of Indian Industry, with the government, is expanding programs to give vocational skills to young people. But the Confederation’s head, Banerjee, said the need is huge.

印度工业联盟正和政府合作发展一项对年轻人提供职业训练的计划。但是联盟负责人班纳吉说，这方面的需求太大了。

“If you are unable to train with targets of like 500 million people, which the prime minister talked about, if you are not able to achieve that, all of this would be unemployed youth because they are unemployable in terms of today’s standards. And that can become a disaster and it could even have a huge negative social impact… so we have no choice but to focus on skilling,” said Banerjee.

班纳吉说：“如果你无法根据如总理所谈到的，以五亿人为目标提供训练，如果你不能完成那个目标，以今天标准来说，所有这些年轻人都将属于失业的一群，因为他们没有就业能力。这可能成为一大灾难。甚至对社会造成巨大的负面影响。所以，我们别无选择，只有集中朝向技能训练方向进行。”

A 2008 report by the Boston Consulting Group has warned that failure to make India’s young people productive will mean that the country will have an army of young people left behind.

波士顿咨询公司于2008在一项报告中警告说，如果不能使印度的年轻人具有生产力，将意味着这个国家的青年人力，被抛弃在落后中。

The other big concern is health care. In Pande’s home state, Uttar Pradesh, infant mortality and malnutrition rates are high. It is not the only region that faces this problem. Nearly half of India’s children under five are malnourished. The school dropout rate also is high.

另外一项使人关切的问题是医疗保健。在潘德的故乡北方邦，婴儿夭折和营养不良的比率很高。北方邦并不是印度仅有的面临这个问题的地区。印度几乎有一半的地区，存在着5岁以下儿童营养不良的状况。学童辍学率也很高。

Sarah Crowe, spokesperson for the United Nations Children's Fund in New Delhi warns that these twin problems “could keep India back.”

联合国儿童基金驻新德里的发言人沙拉·克罗警告说，这种双重的问题，将使印度持续落后。

“That child is unable to really grow to its ability and will remain in a state of stunting, and not be able to learn when it goes to school, and indeed later earn and really pay back into the economy, and help the country and region move forward," said Crowe. "Out of 200 million children who start school, only 10 percent complete grade 12, so that again means that potential is not being fully met.”

克罗说：“这些孩子不能真正的发展潜力，停留在发育不全的状况下。他们无法在学校中学习，来日以也无法赚钱回馈于经济发展，也不能协助国家和地区进步。在印度2亿学龄儿童中，只有10%完成12年级的学业。这又说明，根本没有充分提供培养这个国家潜能的需求。”

Policymakers admit the clock is ticking away. Others warn that India needs to step up investments in health care and education to ensure that its demographic dividend does not turn into what some call a demographic liability.

印度政府的决策官员承认，时间正在分秒地流失。还有人警告说，印度必需在医疗保健和教育上投资，以确保人口上的优势，而不致变成人口上的负担。