2010年最值得期待的三大经济惊喜

经济预测师们普遍预计，2010年将是经济温和增长的一年，增幅约为3%，大大好于此前两年。但是，这还没有好到将失业率降到衰退前的水平。而失业率一直是经济面临的最大持续性威胁。
The consensus of economic forecasters expects 2010 to be a year of modest economic growth -- almost 3% -- much better than the previous two years. But that's not good enough to bring unemployment -- the greatest continuing threat to the economy -- close to pre-recession levels.
　　
普遍预期在某些方面几乎总是有错误的；问题在于，经济会在哪些方面让我们出乎意料。这在很大程度上取决于雇主将会招聘多少人。以下是其它三大变数。
The consensus is almost always wrong in some respect; the question is in which respects the economy will surprise us. A lot rides on how much hiring employers do. Here are three of the other big variables.
　　
企业投资即将反弹。会吗？
Business investment is primed to rebound. Will it?
　　
经济衰退对消费者支出的打击引来了企业更严重的下滑。经济衰退期间的资本支出降幅超过了大萧条以来的任何时期。这意味着它有足够的空间恢复，如果企业能变得更加自信的话。
The pullback from consumers spooked by an economic downturn spurred an even sharper withdrawal by businesses. Capital spending tumbled during the recession more than it had at any time since the Great Depression. That means it has plenty of room to recover, if businesses can grow more confident.
　　
企业的资产负债表总体看好。企业利润上升、资本成本下降、生产力表现强劲。
Business balance sheets overall look promising. Corporate profits are up, the cost of capital is down and productivity is strong.
　　
企业有充足的资金进行从机械到软件等各方面的投资。根据美联储的数据，反映企业外部融资额的指标公司资金缺口从今年第二季度的负1,530亿美元变为第三季度的负1,890亿美元。负的融资缺口意味着企业有内部资金支持它们的资本支出。
Firms have plenty of funds to finance investments, from machinery to software. The corporate financing gap, a reflection of how much firms must raise externally, hit a negative $189 billion in the third quarter from a negative $153 billion in the April-June period, according to Federal Reserve data. A negative financing gap means companies have the funds in house to support their capital expenditures.
　　
经纪及金融技术公司Investment Technology Group Inc.的首席经济学家巴伯拉(Robert Barbera)说，与美国的家庭状况不同，企业领域处于极好的财务状况中。企业创造出的资金远远超过了它们的投资额。
'Unlike the household sector, the corporate sector is in excellent fiscal condition,' says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group Inc., a brokerage and financial technology firm. Businesses are 'wildly generating more money than they're using to invest.'
　　
如果消费者支出不出现温和改善，资本支出不可能实现持续反弹。但是，在过去1年大幅削减支出后，企业被压抑的需求可能对让经济获得复苏所需的速度至关重要。
A sustained rebound in capital expenditures can't occur without a modest improvement in consumer spending. But pent-up demand by businesses, after slashing expenditures sharply in the past year, could prove critical in giving the economy the velocity it needs to recover.
　　
经济学家们都在指望资本支出的一些改善的迹象。在这方面，我们可能会在2010年看到出乎意料的上升。
Economists are on counting on some improvement in capital spending. On this front, we could see an upside surprise in 2010.