2010年最值得期待的三大经济惊喜

房地产市场会否康复？
Will housing heal?
　　
房地产行业的麻烦显然正在缓和。但房主、贷款机构和建筑商在恢复信心前还有很长的路要走。
Trouble throughout the housing sector clearly is abating. But homeowners, lenders and builders have a long way to go before regaining confidence.
　　
房价的暴跌可能导致消费者减少消费，面临贷款损失的银行也会降低放贷额。虽然价格下降最严重的时期似乎已经过去，但预计全国的房价在2010年只会出现小幅上涨。
Sharp home-price declines can lead consumers to spend less and banks, hit by loan losses, to lend less. While the worst of the price drops appear to be over, home values nationwide are expected to show tiny gains -- if any -- throughout 2010.
　
最大的原因在于，房屋止赎的大幅增加还远远看不到尽头。据抵押贷款银行家协会说，到第三季度末，4.5%的贷款处于止赎程序中，高于上年同期的3%。此外，在所有贷款中有9.6%至少出现过一次逾期还款。除非失业率大幅下降，房地产市场将难以出现好转。
The biggest reason: the troubling spike in home foreclosures is nowhere near its end. At the end of the third quarter, 4.5% of loans were in the foreclosure process, up from 3% a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. On top of that, 9.6% of all loans had at least one past-due payment. Until the unemployment rate recovers substantially, improvement will be elusive.

所有这一切都意味着有更多的房屋进入市场，进而压低房价。衍生品经纪公司MF Global首席经济学家奥沙利文说，市场上仍有大量过剩房屋。由于供房没有那么难了，我们将会慢慢消化这些过量供应，不过不管怎样，房屋仍旧严重过剩。
All of that means more homes coming on the market, pushing values lower. 'There still is a huge, huge excess of homes,' says Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global. Due to better home affordability 'you're going to eat into that glut over time, but nonetheless there's still a huge excess.'
　　
房屋销售最近出现好转，主要原因是美联储收购抵押贷款证券带来的较低的抵押贷款利率，以及对买房人的联邦减税措施。这两项措施都将于明年年中之前到期。届时，房屋销售活动将会受到冲击。
Much of the recent improvement in sales is due to low mortgage rates, spurred by the Federal Reserve's purchase of mortgage securities, and a federal tax credit for home buyers. Both are set to expire by the middle of next year. When they do, sales activity will take a hit.
　　
楼市的一个领域可能会显示出一些希望。经济低迷时期住宅投资大幅下滑，已经没有进一步下降的空间了。
One area of housing could show some hope. Residential investment fell so sharply during the economic downturn that it has little room to decline further.
　　
11月份新屋销售较2005年7月的峰值低74%，未来很多年都不太可能会再回到那个水平。不过库存已经降到了1971年以来的最低水平，因此房屋建设很可能会上升，推动整体经济增长。
Sales of new homes in November stood 74% below the July 2005 peak and are unlikely to reach that level again for many years. But inventories have been whittled down to the lowest level since 1971, so construction is likely to rise and contribute to overall growth in the economy.
　　
在经过了两年的动荡之后，预测人士的普遍看法是，2010年楼市将出现小幅好转。对房价来说，风险很显然是不断增多的止赎带来的下行压力。不过房屋建设从低迷的水平开始回升，很有希望成为2010年的一大惊喜。
After two years of turmoil, forecasters' consensus view is for minor improvement in housing in 2010. For home prices, the risk is clearly to the downside given mounting foreclosures. But home construction, starting from its depressed levels, has a good shot at being a positive surprise for 2010.