2010年最值得期待的三大经济惊喜

失去公共领域的支持，经济能承受得住吗？
Will the economy withstand loss of public-sector support?
　　
2009年的大部分时间，政府都把美国经济置于一个人造心脏泵上。如果生命支持系统按计划于2010年停运，我们可以料想会发生一些挫折，遭受打击。
The government put the U.S. economy on an artificial heart pump for much of 2009. If the life support comes off as scheduled in 2010, we can expect a few bruising setbacks.
　　
7,870亿美元的减税及支出刺激计划是帮助今年下半年刺激经济增长、提振信心的功臣。高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家们预计，2010年上半年，财政刺激计划将继续把年率化的增速提高两个百分点。到下半年，刺激计划的提振作用就会消失。
The $787 billion mix of tax cuts and spending deserves credit for helping to spur growth in the economy -- and improve confidence -- in the second half of this year. Goldman Sachs economists expect fiscal stimulus will continue to boost annualized growth by two percentage points in the first half of 2010. In the second half, the boost is gone.
　　
劳动力市场之外，经济上存在的最大问号是消费者和企业将对政府支持的结束作出怎样的反应。在政府的救助之下，2009年有很多消费者买了降价房子和车子。由于政府用纳税人的资金进行了支持，企业也得到了建筑合同和利率更低的贷款。
Outside the labor market, the biggest question mark hanging over the economy is how consumers and businesses respond when the government support fades. Many consumers picked up lower-priced houses and cars in 2009 thanks to government aid. Businesses found construction contracts and cheaper loans thanks to taxpayer support.
　　
在这样一个受到高失业率困扰的大选之年，国会和白宫在着手计划更多的项目来促进企业招工、支持地方政府、增加基础设施支出。
Congress and the White House, in an election year plagued by high unemployment, are planning more programs to boost hiring by businesses, support local governments and increase infrastructure spending.
　　
不过，他们将面临这样一个风险：做的越多，赤字越大，进而造成其他问题。摩根大通经济学家迈克尔．洛里说，现在的问题是，对财政可持续性的担心确实在加剧，但放缓刺激也确实会带来代价。
But they'll face the risk that doing more will create other problems through a rising deficit. 'You are getting to the point now where the worries about fiscal sustainability really are intensifying,' J.P. Morgan Chase economist Michael Feroli says. 'Slowing down the drag does come with a cost.'
　　
2010年的看点可能是，当政府的刺激计划终止时，经济会如何表现。普遍的看法是预计私营领域将接起“接力棒”，不过随着联邦救助的消失，经济将面临相当大的下行风险。
The story of 2010 could be how the economy fared when the government spigots turned off. The consensus expects the private sector to pick up the baton, but the downside risks to the economy as federal aid fades are substantial.