失业救济金让失业者更加理智

　　This is an interesting theory, but distinguishing between moral hazard and the effect of having some cash to hand is tough. Chetty looked at sharp breaks in the unemployment insurance rules in the US, comparing one state's rules with another's, or examining moments when the rules changed. One suggestive finding is that when unemployment insurance becomes more generous, not everybody lingers on benefits. The median job-loser in the US has $200 when he loses his job and is unlikely to be able to borrow much, but some people have plenty of money in the bank when they find themselves unemployed. Chetty found that those with savings do not take any longer to find a job when paid more generous benefits, while those with little in the kitty when they lose their jobs do. This suggests that those without their own cash reserves are using unemployment benefits to buy themselves time to find the right job.

　　这是一个有趣的理论，但是将道德风险与手头有一些现金可花的效应区别开相当困难。切迪研究了美国失业保险制度的明显改变，将各州的制度进行比较，或研究制度改变时的状况。一个具有提示性的发现是：当失业救济金增加时，并非所有人都对此留恋不舍。美国失业者的救济金中值为200美元，他们不太可能借到很多钱，但有些人失业时，在银行有大量的存款。切迪发现，那些有存款的人在救济金更高的时候，不愿意失业太长时间，而那些没有多少存款的人，则愿意等上更长的时间。这表明，那些自己没有现金储备的人正利用失业救济，让自己有充足的时间去寻找合适的工作。

　　Of course, there may be many differences between people with savings and those without, so this merely suggests that Chetty is on to something. But there are other clues - for instance, Chetty and two colleagues looked at the system in Austria, where severance pay is due to anyone employed for more than three years. By looking at - for example - a factory closure in which lots of staff are fired simultaneously, they could treat severance pay almost as a randomised experiment. Those lucky enough to get severance pay spent more time looking for a new job, despite the fact that severance pay provides no direct incentive to stay out of work.

　　当然，有存款的人与没有存款的人的情况可能有很多不同，因此这只是表明，切迪发现了一些东西。但还有其他一些线索，比如，切迪和两位同事研究了奥地利的制度，该国任何就业三年以上的雇员都有解雇费。举例来说，在观察一家工厂倒闭、大量工人同时被裁掉时，他们可能把解雇费作为一种随机实验。那些足够幸运的家 伙利用解雇费来花费更多的时间寻找一份新工作，尽管事实上，解雇费并没有直接鼓励人们不工作。

　　Unemployment benefit does encourage unemployment in the short term; but that may be no bad thing.

　　短期内，失业救济确实鼓励了失业，但这可能不是坏事。