美国应叫停生物燃料生产

The worst drought for 50 years is inflicting huge damage on the US maize crop, with serious consequences for the overall international food supply.
美国玉米作物正受到50年来最严重旱情的巨大破坏，使国际粮食总体供应情况受到了重大影响。

The situation reminds us that even the most advanced agricultural systems are subject to the vagaries of the weather, leading to volatility in supplies and prices not just on domestic markets but also internationally. Climate change and extreme weather events will further complicate the picture.
当前形势提醒我们，即使是最发达的农业体系也无法摆脱天气无常的影响，这不仅会导致国内市场供给和价格波动，还会波及国际市场。气候变化和极端天气现象更使情况雪上加霜。

US maize production had been expected to increase to record levels this year. That view will prove optimistic. Much of the reduced crop will be claimed by biofuel production in line with US federal mandates, leaving even less for food and feed markets. The August US Department of Agriculture estimates, announced today, will give a more precise idea for just how much the maize crop is reduced. Few people are expecting good news.
人们原本预料，今年美国玉米产量将打破历史最高纪录。事实证明这种观点过于乐观了。根据联邦法令，歉收的玉米中，相当大一部分将被用于生产生物燃料，因而进入粮食和饲料市场的玉米就更少了。

Maize prices have already gone higher than their 2008 and 2011 peaks, increasing by 23 per cent during July alone. Wheat prices have followed maize prices upwards. Repercussions are already being felt in the US livestock sector.
近期玉米价格已经超过了2008年和2011年的峰值，单是7月份就上涨了23%。而小麦价格则追随玉米价格上涨。美国畜牧业已经感受到了价格上涨的冲击。

Unsurprisingly, the media has started talking about the possibility of a food crisis. Whether that happens depends not only on how long the drought lasts and how much damage it does to crops but on how far its impact spreads to other markets, whether there are further supply shocks and how countries react to the price movements.
媒体已经开始谈论出现粮食危机的可能性，这一点都不令人惊讶。是否会发生粮食危机不仅取决于旱情持续时间有多长、对农作物的伤害有多大，也取决于其影响向其他市场扩散的程度，以及是否会有后续供给冲击、各国如何应对价格波动。

In 2007-08 governments tended to react in a disorganised and erratic manner, which often accentuated global price rises, as was the case with the imposition of export restraints. Often the measures were not even effective in meeting the objective of stabilising domestic prices, as they often led to panic buying and hoarding.
2007-08年，各国政府的反应无序混乱，这往往加剧了国际价格上涨，其效果如同实施出口限制措施一样。但这些措施通常会引发抢购和囤积行为，达不到有效稳定国内价格的目标。

Given all this, governments should be cautious, especially considering that high prices are not necessarily negative. Attractive producer prices will be needed in the coming months to entice producers to embark on a much needed increase of crop cultivation, especially in the southern hemisphere.
考虑到上述种种，政府应该谨慎行事，尤其是高价并不一定产生负面效果。未来几个月，只有生产者价格足够诱人，才能吸引人们扩大种植——这是目前亟需的——尤其是在南半球。