热浪侵袭：多国开启“炙烤模式”，未来5年全球气温或飙至历史新高

今年6月以来，多国出现极端高温天气，迎创纪录高温，不仅对民众生活生产带来“烤”验，也令科学家们感到担忧。气象专家指出，人类活动所导致的气候变化和厄尔尼诺现象等因素叠加，导致了今夏的高温天气。随着厄尔尼诺现象卷土重来，极端天气或将更频发。世界气象组织（WMO）预测，未来五年，全球气温可能会飙升至创纪录的水平。

Even though summer has only just begun, record heatwaves are already being set. Last week Beijing logged its hottest June day since records began, at 41C. In Texas, a deadly heatwave is entering its third week – a number of records have already been broken across the state, including a blistering 115F (46.1C) reading in Del Rio and 116F (46.6C) in Cotulla. In India, morgues and hospitals became overwhelmed after temperatures hit 45C in some areas – at least 96 people reportedly died from heat-aggravated conditions. 
据英国《卫报》27日报道，尽管夏天才刚刚开始，但创纪录的热浪已经来袭。上周，中国北京迎来史上最热六月天，最高气温达41摄氏度。在美国得克萨斯州，致命热浪持续至第三周，该州多地气温纪录被打破，德尔里奥和科图拉分别创下46.1摄氏度、46摄氏度的高温纪录。在印度，一些地区气温最高达到45摄氏度，停尸房和医院人满为患——据报道，至少有96人死于高温。

“Definitely globally we are seeing more heat-related deaths as temperatures rise,” said Dr. Christopher Sampson, an emergency physician at MU Health.
密苏里大学健康中心急诊医生克里斯托弗·桑普森表示：“随着气温升高，全球各地肯定会发生更多高温致死案例。”

Being exposed to these high temperatures can cause damage when body temperatures rise to 104 degrees or higher. It can occur as quickly as 30 minutes.
在高温环境下，当体温上升到40度以上时，可能会危及健康。这一过程最快可能在30分钟内发生。

People with high blood pressure, people who work or exercise outside, and people over the age of 65 are most at risk. But it can happen to anyone. Health Research Funding found that 70% of heat stroke deaths occur in children younger than age 2.
高血压患者、从事户外工作或在户外锻炼的人群以及65岁以上老人面临的风险最大。但高温致死可能发生在任何人身上。健康研究基金发现，70%的中暑死亡发生在2岁以下的儿童中。

高温热浪极易引发中暑，一旦发生中暑，要及时干预、正确处置，否则症状将持续加重，如发展至热射病甚至可能导致死亡。

出现先兆中暑或轻症中暑，要尽快找到阴凉的地方，解开衣领散热。喝一点水，用湿毛巾擦拭身体，并及时休息。

当发现身边有重症中暑病人时，应立即将患者移至阴凉处，平躺在平面上，必要时脱去衣物。如无危及生命的并发症，应在现场想办法尽快降低病人体温，在脖子、腋窝和腹股沟上敷冰袋或湿毛巾等。如有条件可用冷水浸泡的方法对无基础疾病的青壮年快速降温。老人和有基础疾病的患者可向皮肤喷水通过蒸发降温。降温应遵循“先降温，后转运” 的原则，在病人失去意识后的“黄金半小时”内进行。现场处置的同时，拨打120送医。

炎热来得又早又猛，科学家们担忧，厄尔尼诺现象将带来极端天气并加剧气候变暖。

The accelerated high temperatures in the past month or so have astounded scientists, who are pointing to a number of parallel events, including the human-caused climate crisis and the naturally occurring weather event El Niño, to explain the cause. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has forecast that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years. 
过去近一个月快速来袭的高温天气让科学家们感到震惊。专家指出，人类活动所导致的气候危机和厄尔尼诺现象等因素叠加导致了今夏的高温天气。世界气象组织（WMO）预测，未来五年全球气温可能会飙升至创纪录的水平。

Since 1884, all 10 of the warmest years recorded have happened after 2003. And with that has come a host of more extreme and more frequent weather events globally that have displaced millions of people, led to food shortages, loss of habitats, and deaths.
自1884年以来，有迹象记录以来最热的10年都发生在2003年之后。随之而来的是全球一系列更极端、更频繁的天气事件，造成数百万人流离失所，粮食短缺、栖息地丧失和死亡。

The rising temperatures that are a result of humans burning fossil fuels are being further exacerbated by the naturally occurring weather event known as El Niño – where sections of the Pacific Ocean heat up, causing temperatures to spike around the world. It is typically declared when ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean rise 0.5C above the long-term average. Its arrival is particularly worrying because even though there were three La Niña episodes (the colder counterpart to El Niño where temperatures drop) between 2020 and 2022, last year was still the fifth-warmest year on record globally.
在全球变暖背景下，厄尔尼诺现象的出现加剧气温升高。该现象表现为太平洋部分地区变暖，导致世界各地的气温飙升。当赤道东太平洋海温比长期平均值高0.5摄氏度时，就会形成厄尔尼诺现象。厄尔尼诺现象的到来尤其令人担忧，因为尽管在2020年至2022年期间发生了三次拉尼娜现象（厄尔尼诺现象的较冷对应物），但2022年仍然是有气象记录以来全球第五热年份。

Scientists are concerned that as El Niño takes effect, extreme weather events will be that much worse. In 2015 and 2016, El Niño affected the food security of more than 60 million people. The weather conditions triggered regional disease outbreaks globally, according to a Nasa study, and it was associated with extreme drought and a record-smashing hurricane season. 
科学家们担心，随着厄尔尼诺现象卷土重来，极端天气事件将更频发。2015年和2016年，厄尔尼诺现象影响了6000多万人的粮食安全。美国航空航天局（NASA）的一项研究显示，这种天气状况引发了全球区域性疾病爆发，并与极端干旱和创纪录的飓风季节有关。

Either way, it is now expected that the average temperature will exceed 1.5C beyond pre-industrial times in the coming years, which is the threshold set out in the Paris agreement where extreme weather events, heatwaves, droughts, flooding and other climate impacts get significantly worse.
无论如何，预计未来几年全球平均气温比工业化前水平将高出1.5摄氏度。这是《巴黎协定》设立的升温阈值。这一情况将导致极端天气事件、热浪、干旱、洪水和其他气候影响显著加剧。

海洋迅速升温将致极端天气频发

It is not just the land that we should be worrying about – the ocean is heating up at an alarming rate because of an uNPRecedented marine heatwave which is being aggravated by, you guessed it, the human-caused climate crisis. Scientists are concerned by not only the sea surface temperatures, which are the warmest in more than 170 years, at 5C above normal, but also by the fact that the rise has come far earlier than they anticipated. The warm waters, described as “beyond extreme”, endanger marine life and make the air warmer and wetter over land as well. Scientists have forecast that there is a 90% to 100% chance that the warm sea surface temperatures will continue through August, with a 70% to 80% chance that it will last through the end of the year.
令人担心的不仅仅是陆地气温，受前所未有的海洋热浪影响，海洋温度正在以惊人速度上升，而正是人类活动所导致的气候危机在加剧热浪形成。海面温度创下170多年来最高纪录，比正常温度高出5摄氏度，令科学家们更担心的是，这一升温幅度的到来远早于预期。“极端”温暖水域危及海洋生物，也使陆地上的空气变得更温暖潮湿。科学家预测，上升的海面温度将持续到8月的可能性为90%至100%，持续到年底的可能性为70%至80%。

Separately, warming oceans lead to sea level rise, more extreme weather and makes them less efficient in absorbing greenhouse emissions.
此外，海洋变暖会导致海平面上升、极端天气更加频发，并降低海洋吸收温室气体排放的效率。

Last year, the Guardian’s Damian Carrington reported that at least a dozen of the most serious weather events, including extreme heatwaves, would have been impossible without human-caused global heating. Ninety-three percent of heatwaves were found to have been made more likely or more severe by human-caused climate change. And this is all happening, Carrington pointed out, with a rise of just 1C in the planet’s average temperature. In short: things are going to get a lot worse.
2022年英国《卫报》的达米安·卡林顿报道称，如果没有全球气候变暖，至少十几起极端高温等最恶劣的极端天气事件将不会发生。研究发现，全球气候变暖加剧了93%的热浪形成的可能性或严重性。卡林顿指出，地球的平均温度只上升了1摄氏度，就引发了这些后果。简而言之：情况会变得更糟。