中行报告：预计全年GDP增速为5.2%左右

中国银行研究院10月8日发布的《2023年四季度经济金融展望报告》预计，今年四季度中国国内生产总值增长5.7%左右，全年增长5.2%左右，经济增长企稳回升态势显现。

BOC Research Institute, the research unit of Bank of China, predicted that the Chinese economy will grow about 5.7 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter to achieve yearly growth of around 5.2 percent this year, above the official annual growth target of 5 percent.

中国银行研究院发布的报告预计，今年四季度中国经济将同比增长5.7%左右，全年增长5.2%左右，超过官方预期的5%的全年增长目标。

The services consumption potential will continue to be unleashed, infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, and high-tech and private manufacturing investment will also grow to enhance manufacturing investment, the 2023 Q4 Economic and Financial Outlook released by the institute on Sunday said.

中国银行研究院10月8日发布的《2023年四季度经济金融展望报告》指出，服务消费潜力将持续释放，基建投资有望提速，高技术制造业和民间制造业也有望支撑制造业投资平稳增长。

That means the endogenous growth momentum of the Chinese economy will gain more steam, it added.

报告称，这意味着中国经济内生增长动力有所改善。

The report predicted that consumption would grow 10 percent and 7.8 percent on a yearly basis respectively in the fourth quarter and in 2023.

报告预计2023年四季度消费同比增长10%左右，全年增长7.8%左右。

In the investment sector, accelerated growth in infrastructure investment and stable growth in manufacturing investment will jointly lead to small-scale growth in overall investment in the coming quarter.

报告称，在投资方面，基建投资提速、制造业投资稳定增长，有望在四季度带动投资小幅回升。

However, weak external demand and remaining profitability pressure in conjunction with the ongoing inventory destocking cycle will somehow impact the willingness and capability of market entities to expand investment in manufacturing. Besides, uncertainties remain in real estate market recovery although recently released policies are expected to help stabilize real estate sales to some extent, the report said.

不过，报告也指出，外需承压、企业利润下滑叠加去库存周期尚未结束，这仍将制约制造业整体投资意愿和能力。此外，房地产市场复苏仍存不确定性，尽管最近出台的政策有望在一定程度上助推房地产销售企稳。

The report suggested that the authorities should further guide and enhance market confidence through more effort in strengthening communication with market entities when adjusting and introducing policies, continuously improving business environment and defusing risks in key areas.

报告指出，政府部门应该在政策调整、实施等过程中加强与市场沟通，持续优化营商环境，稳定市场主体信心和预期，做好重点领域风险化解工作。

The report also suggested China give full play to the enormous domestic market to keep expanding effective demand, stimulate the vitality of private capital, and promote industrial transformation and upgrades.

报告还建议，中国应发挥好国内超大规模市场作用，持续扩大有效需求，激发社会资本活力，推动产业转型升级。

Fiscal policies should become more proactive and effective, playing a bigger role in stabilizing growth while expanding demand, while also paying attention to preventing risks, the report said.

报告表示，财政政策需要持续加力提效，在稳增长、扩需求方面担当更重要的角色，同时注意防范风险。