专访彭博全球首席经济学家：中国应将2024年经济增长目标定为5%左右

彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰在接受《中国日报》专访时表示，中国应将2024年的经济增长目标定为“5%左右”，这将有助于提振信心，增强经济回升向好态势。他表示，电动汽车、可持续能源和高速铁路等新兴领域的蓬勃发展将为中国经济提供持续增长的机遇。欧乐鹰还对中国的中长期发展前景表示乐观，他认为中国存在巨大的增长潜力。

China should aim for an economic expansion of "around 5 percent" for 2024, as that will help boost confidence and revive its recovery momentum, Bloomberg Economics' chief economist Tom Orlik said.
彭博全球首席经济学家欧乐鹰表示，中国应将2024年的经济增长目标定为“5%左右”，这将有助于提振信心，增强经济回升向好态势。

"I think a target of around 5 percent is probably sufficiently ambitious to boost confidence for businesses, and it is not too stretching so as to avoid the risk of overinvestment and over-stimulus," he told China Daily in an exclusive interview.
欧乐鹰在接受《中国日报》专访时表示：“我认为，5%左右的目标可能足以提振企业信心，而且不会太激进，以避免投资过剩和过度刺激的风险。”

Orlik said China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policy supportive to help bolster recovery of the economy.
欧乐鹰表示，中国仍有空间保持货币和财政政策的支持，以帮助推动经济回升向好。

In the monetary realm, a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will be likely in the following months, he said.
他表示，在货币领域，未来几个月中国可能会进一步下调存款准备金率和政策利率。

Orlik said a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in stimulating domestic demand.
欧乐鹰称，强有力的财政政策将在刺激国内需求方面发挥更大作用。

The focus should be on spurring household spending and stimulating the development of emerging fields, including providing subsidies for households and increasing spending on city transport and green transition.
重点应放在刺激家庭支出和刺激新兴领域的发展上，包括提供家庭补贴，扩大城市交通和绿色转型支出。

"I think the big remaining opportunity for China in terms of delivering stimulus is to leverage the central government's balance sheet. And that means a bigger fiscal deficit and a bigger role for fiscal policy in driving growth," he said.
他说："我认为，中国在实施经济刺激政策方面仍有很大的机会，那就是利用中央政府的资产负债表。这意味着要扩大财政赤字，让财政政策在推动经济增长方面发挥更大作用。”

Considering stronger policy support, pressure from a real estate downturn, and slowing global growth, Orlik anticipates that China's economy will expand by around 4.5 percent in 2024.
考虑到更有力的政策支持、房地产下滑带来的压力以及全球经济增长放缓，欧乐鹰预计 2024年中国经济将增长4.5%左右。

He said booming emerging fields, such as electric vehicles, sustainable energy and high-speed railways, will offer continued growth opportunities for the Chinese economy.
他表示，电动汽车、可持续能源和高速铁路等新兴领域的蓬勃发展将为中国经济提供持续增长的机遇。

Orlik also expressed optimism about China's medium -and long-term development prospects, saying there is huge growth potential. "China's overall GDP per capita is just one-third of the level in Japan, so China is still a middle-income country. That means there's a huge amount of development space left."
欧乐鹰还对中国的中长期发展前景表示乐观，他认为中国存在巨大的增长潜力。"中国的人均GDP仅为日本的三分之一，因此中国仍属于中等收入国家。这意味着中国还有巨大的发展空间。”

Going forward, Orlik said China will remain one of the biggest contributors to global growth, creating significant opportunities around the world.
欧乐鹰说，展望未来，中国将继续成为全球增长的最大贡献者之一，在世界各地创造重大机遇。