专家预测：上半年GDP增速或高于全年目标

China's economy will likely expand by over 5 percent in the first half of this year amid strong policy stimulus, robust industrial production and stable external demand, providing a solid base for achieving its annual growth target of around 5 percent, economists said on Monday.
经济学家8日表示，在强有力的政策刺激、强劲的工业生产和稳定的外部需求推动下，今年上半年中国经济增速或超过5%，为实现5%左右的全年增长目标奠定了坚实基础。

Looking into the second half of the year, they said the economy is on track for stable growth thanks to the strong manufacturing performance, resilience in exports and stepped-up macroeconomic policy support.
展望今年下半年，专家们表示，得益于强劲的制造业表现、出口的韧性和宏观经济政策进一步发力，经济正稳步增长。

"China's economy has made a good start at the beginning of the year and the economy has continued the recovery trend in the first half of 2024," said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank. "China's economy will likely grow by around 5.2 percent in the first half, followed by a 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter and a 5.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter."
中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示：“上半年，中国经济回升向好，一季度实现良好开局。预计上半年GDP同比增长5.2%左右，预计三季度GDP同比增长4.9%，四季度为5.1%。”

His remarks came as the market is eagerly awaiting the release of key economic indicators by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15.
在温彬发表此番观点之际，国家统计局将于7月15日发布主要经济数据。

China has already announced a series of measures to boost demand, including the issuance of 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) worth of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds this year as well as driving large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in deals for consumer goods.
中国已经宣布了一系列提振需求的措施，包括今年发行1万亿元超长期特别国债，以及推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动。

"With the gradual stabilization of the endogenous driving force, China's economy will continue the recovery trend," said Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities. "The country's economic growth rate will likely reach 5.1 percent this year, meeting the annual growth target."
浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示：“随着内生动力的逐步稳定，中国经济将持续回升向好。中国今年的经济增速可能达到5.1%，实现年度增长目标。”

Li's views were echoed by Xiong Yuan, chief economist at Guosheng Securities, who said the second-quarter GDP growth rate will likely be around 5 percent.
国盛证券首席经济学家熊园持相同观点。他预计二季度GDP增长可能在5%左右。

"The policy focus is shifting to stabilizing the housing market, boosting demand and advancing reforms," he said.
他表示：“政策重点正在转向稳定房地产市场、提振需求和推进改革。”