2009年第一季度的经济走势

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What about early 2009, the first quarter of 2009? What are your expectations for that? What does it look like? How are you advising your clients?

Because it seems like we have been really sort of testing the lows lately. We haven't seen the 700 points swings in recent weeks like we saw just a few months ago. I mean it seems like there’s a bit of calming here. What is the 2009 bringing? Is there really a new chapter for the market?

It will be a new chapter for the market. I think we are coming to January, and you typically see a January effect meaning that you get a fresh batch of 401K money that gets largely put into the marketplace, that would probably happen again. We will probably see a stabilizing in energy prices, that's gonna be a positive. You know, the precipitate sell-off energy prices has been tied to the global economic slowdown, and probably very overdone. So I think that is gonna be another key theme as we come into the first quarter of next year. In large part we will hear a whole lot more in the February March time frame about fiscal stimulus. What it's gonna look like and who it's gonna impact and how quickly we get that move forward, that's gonna be very important in the first quarter of next year, but in terms of what to tell investors, this is a time to start looking at your portfolio, January is always a time a sort of reset. Look at your exposure to equity markets and see if it is appropriate what your the risk level is. A long-term investor is gonna see some great bargains in the first half of next year if we get any sort of recovery in this economy in the fourth quarter of next year. Yeah, it is gonna be time to start looking at stocks again with a fresh view towards an improving economy.

Where do you think those good bargains are right now and in early 2009? Where should people be looking in? And where should they not be looking?

Well, you should not be looking at consumer discretionary it is too soon for that. Maybe it’s too soon for a while. The auto industry is going to get rescued but the auto-stocks are not, stay away from that. Certainly, stay away from things tied to an advertising business model. That’s gonna have a very difficult 2009. Energy stocks will probably be at bargain lows in the first half of this year. I think it's time to start looking at those and I think you gonna see a snapback rally in the commodity price , you know, they stabilizes as close to 50 dollars, sorta does to 30 dollars. So probably a lot of money will be made there. Technology is gonna continue to see on-going consolidations, so continue to look at those large cap tax stocks that have a pile of cash. And certainly, look at the names that they may be buying .We're gonna see more and more of that as we walk away in the first quarter of next year. So you know technology honestly is not foresight. And energy through the whole complex, avoid the consumer discretionary and avoid the advertising model certainly, avoid anything that sort of related to the auto industry in any way she'll perform.

All right, we'll leave it there. And thank you and appreciate your time.

sell-off  (chiefly US)a sale of shares, bonds, or commodities, especially one that causes a fall in price.

(主美)（股票、债券或商品的，尤指导致价格下跌的）出售

consumer discretionary n. 非必需消费品

401K  401（k）是全美国目前最受欢迎的养老金计划之一

每当人们谈论401（k）计划时，您经常会听到它的以下优点： 从雇主手中白白拿钱; 减少应税所得; 储蓄和收益实行累积制;不用惦记着存钱; 退休后可能不必再为钱而发愁。

1978年，美国国会决定鼓励美国国民增加养老储蓄。国会议员们认为，如果能够提供一种养老金储蓄途径，同时降低州和联邦税，人们就会踊跃参加这一计划。《税收改革法案》正是在这样的背景下得以通过的。法案的部分条款允许为雇员建立一种延迟纳税的储蓄计划。该计划因《国内税收法》中的401条第（k）项而得名。

401（k）计划是一系列退休计划的组成部分，该系列计划叫做固定分担额退休金计划。其它固定分担额退休金计划包括：利润分享计划、个人退休金账户（IRA）、小型企业雇员配款（Simple IRA）、简易雇员退休金（SEP）和货币购买计划。这些计划之所以称为“固定分担额退休金计划”，是因为分担额是由雇员（又称参与者）或雇主规定的。

401（k）计划与其他养老金计划的不同之处在于：

当您参加401（k）计划时，您可以告知雇主您希望在账户中存入多少钱。通常每月最高可存入工资的15%，但雇主有权限制该金额。如果金额不如您的预期，您应当尽力争取一个较高的限额。美国国税局设定的全年总缴款限额为11,000美元（2002年）。

这笔缴款是在计算税前直接从您的工资中扣除的，更重要的是，您甚至无需亲自经手。这使得401（k）成为最方便的养老金储蓄计划之一。

如果运气好，雇主会根据您的缴款数额，提供一定比例的“搭配”缴款。雇主提供的搭配缴款，即您可以“白拿的钱”，是用来激励员工参加该计划的主要动力。雇主之所以鼓励您参加该计划完全是由于法规的制约

账户中的资金交给第三方进行管理，管理人员负责帮您开设账户，投资共同基金、债券、货币市场等，但具体投资组合方式是由您自己决定的。管理人员通常会提供一份投资工具清单，供您从中挑选，同时会针对您愿意承担的风险水平提供一些指导。

401（k）计划有什么不利之处呢？假如您在59.5岁前取款，则不仅要为这笔钱纳税，而且要向美国国税局支付10%的罚款。