贸易战是全球经济发展最大的威胁

A trade war is the worst of many threats to global growth. Look at the headlines, and you would struggle to believe that the global economy is in good health.

贸易战是全球经济发展最大的威胁。看看头条新闻，你很难相信全球经济形式良好。

President Donald Trump continues to fire off volleys in his inchoate trade war, throwing financial markets into turmoil and drawing retaliation. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, an activity that usually ends in a recession in America.

唐纳德特朗普总统在其近期发起的贸易战中继续加薪助燃，让金融市场处于一片混乱，并引起更多经济报复。美联储正在提高利率，这一行为通常以美国经济衰退告终。

Tighter credit and a rising dollar are squeezing emerging markets, some of which, such as Argentina, are under severe stress. Yet the world economy is thriving.

信贷紧缩和美元升值正在挤压新兴市场，某些新兴市场，如阿根廷，面临巨大的压力。但世界经济正蓬勃发展。

Growth has slowed slightly since 2017, but still seems to be beating the languid pace set in the five years before that. America may even be speeding up, thanks to Mr Trump’s tax cuts and spending binge. A higher oil price, which in past economic cycles might have been a drag, is today spurring investment in the production of American shale.

自2017年以来，经济增长有所减缓，但是仍然比之前五年的经济增速快。美国经济增长甚至会增速，这都要归功于特朗普的减税政策以及财政支出的增加。过去，油价上涨可能成为经济周期的累赘，现如今却会刺激美国页岩气的生产投资。

Some forecasts have growth exceeding 4% in the second quarter of 2018. This sugar rush, however, brings dangers. The first is that it provides temporary political cover for Mr Trump’s recklessness. The second is that, if America accelerates and the rest of the world slows, widening differentials in interest rates would push up the dollar still more. That would worsen problems in emerging markets and further provoke Mr Trump by making it harder for him to achieve his goal of balanced trade.

有人预测2018年第二季度经济增长会超过4%。然而这种带来甜头的增速，也会引来危机。首先是给特朗普的鲁莽草率提供了政治庇护。其次是若美国经济增速加快，而其他地区增速放缓，利率差异加大，会导致美元继续升值。如此一来，新兴市场的问题加剧，特朗普会更加恼火于难以实现平衡贸易的目标。