全球变暖幅度或被严重低估

Collapsing polar ice caps, a green Sahara Desert, a 20-foot sea-level rise.

塌陷的极地冰山、绿色的撒哈拉沙漠、上升了20英尺的海平面……

That’s the potential future of Earth, a new study suggests, noting that global warming could be twice as warm as current climate models predict.

据一项新的研究显示，这就是地球潜在的未来，并指出全球变暖可能是目前气候模型预测的两倍。

The rate of warming is also remarkable: “The changes we see today are much faster than anything encountered in Earth’s history. In terms of rate of change, we are in uncharted waters,” said study co-author Katrin Meissner of the University of New South Wales in Australia.

并且升温的速度也非常惊人。研究报告作者之一、澳大利亚新南威尔士大学的卡特琳·迈斯纳说：“我们今天看到的变化比地球历史上任何时候都要快得多。就变化率而言，我们正处于未知的水域。”

This could mean the landmark Paris Climate Agreement – which seeks to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – may not be enough to ward off catastrophe.

这可能意味着，具有里程碑意义的巴黎气候协定——该协定寻求将全球变暖幅度控制在比工业化前水平高2摄氏度（3.6华氏度）的范围内——可能不足以防止灾难发生。

“Even with just 2 degrees of warming – and potentially just 1.5 degrees – significant impacts on the Earth system are profound,” said study co-author Alan Mix, a scientist from Oregon State University.

研究报告作者之一、美国俄勒冈州立大学的艾伦·米克斯说：“即使只升温2摄氏度——很可能只升温1.5摄氏度——对地球系统产生的重大影响也将是深远的。”

“We can expect that sea-level rise could become unstoppable for millennia, impacting much of the world’s population, infrastructure and economic activity,” Mix said.

米克斯说：“我们可以预见，海平面的上升将会持续数千年，影响到世界上大部分的人口、基础设施和经济活动。”

In looking at Earth’s past, scientists can predict what the future will look like. In the study, the researchers looked back at natural global warming periods over the past 3.5 million years and compared them to current man-made warming.

通过研究地球的过去，科学家们可以预测未来会是什么样子。在这项研究中，研究人员回顾了过去350万年来自然出现的全球变暖期，并将它们与当前人为的变暖期进行了比较。

Human-inflicted climate change is caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas, which release heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the the atmosphere.

人为的气候变化是由燃烧煤、石油和天然气等化石燃料引起的。这些活动把聚热的二氧化碳和甲烷等温室气体排放到大气中。

study lead author Hubertus Fischer of the University of Bern in Switzerland and his team found that our current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming.

研究报告第一作者、瑞士伯尔尼大学的胡贝图斯·费希尔及其研究小组发现，我们目前的气候预测可能低估了长期变暖的影响。

Meissner said that "climate models appear to be trustworthy for small changes, such as for low-emission scenarios over short periods, say over the next few decades out to 2100. But as the change gets larger or more persistent ... it appears they underestimate climate change."

迈斯纳说：“就小的变化而言，气候模型似乎是可靠的，比如未来几十年一直到2100年的短期内低排放情况。但随着变化越来越大或持续更久……气候模型似乎低估了气候变化。”

The study, which was conducted by dozens of researchers from 17 countries, was published last week in Nature Geoscience, a peer-reviewed British journal.

这项研究是由来自17个国家的数十名研究人员进行的，研究报告发表在英国一份同行审阅的杂志《自然·地球科学》月刊上。