特朗普上演全球大撤退 谁将成最后赢家?

The guiding assumptions of modern American foreign policy were set out in a document written in 1950 for president Harry Truman. NSC-68 as it was called (the paper was prepared at the National Security Council) was Washington’s answer to Soviet communism. At its core was a belief that US national interests were best pursued through international leadership. This is the foundation stone to which Donald Trump has taken a sledgehammer.

现代美国外交政策的指导原则体现在1950年为哈里杜鲁门(Harry Truman)总统起草的一份文件中。这份由美国国家安全委员会(NSC)起草、代号NSC-68的文件，是华盛顿对如何应对苏维埃共产主义的回答。其核心是一种信念，即实现美国国家利益的最佳方式，是美国在国际上的领导地位。而这正是唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)举起大锤砸向的那块基石。

A shouting match with America’s allies might then be followed by a day of backslapping with Mr Putin. The president, after all, has made plain his disdain for Nato. He says the Europeans set up the EU as part of an economic conspiracy against the US. His response to the myriad allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election campaign has been to increase his professed admiration for Mr Putin.

特朗普很可能会在与美国的盟友们大吵一架之后，紧接着就去跟普京勾肩搭背。毕竟，特朗普已明确表达自己对北约的蔑视。他说，欧洲人成立欧盟，就是针对美国的经济阴谋的一部分。对外界关于俄罗斯干涉2016年美国总统大选的无数指控，他的回应是变本加厉地表达自己对普京的钦佩。

Seen through this lens, Mr Trump’s admiration for Mr Putin is readily explicable. They are both self-declared strong men. They share an outlook that says the prizes should go to the powerful, that multilateral institutions and rules are calculated to ensnare them, and that norms, values and what they call moralism do not have a place in the conduct of relations between states. As for the weak, well they can go hang.

从这个角度来看，特朗普对普京的钦佩就很好理解了。他们都自称强人。他们有一种共同观念，认为强者应该得到奖赏，多边机构和规则就是为了给他们下套，而准则、价值观以及他们所称的道德主义在国家间关系的处理中没有容身之地。至于弱者，他们可以去上吊。

On Mr Trump’s present course — and even his unashamedly America-first national security adviser John Bolton is showing signs of alarm at the president’s behaviour — the concept of a western order will be drained of substance and meaning. US allies, in Asia as well as Europe, will have to find other ways to safeguard their security. Some may look to China; others may think about a nuclear deterrent; Europe may understand it has to be able to defend itself.

按照特朗普目前的路线——甚至连理直气壮地主张美国优先的国家安全顾问约翰博尔顿(John Bolton)也对总统的行为表现出警惕——西方秩序概念的实质和意义都将被抽干。美国在亚洲和欧洲的盟友将不得不寻找其他方式来保护本国的安全。一些国家可能会把目光投向中国；一些国家可能会考虑核威慑；欧洲或将明白它不得不自己保卫自己。

The big winners of course are Mr Putin and Mr Xi. Their shared strategic goal has long been to building a world with common destiny. The increasing outlook for both countries are positive, said experts, adding that they will be real future winners in the race.

最大的赢家当然是普京和习近平。长久以来，他们的共同战略目标一直是构建人类社会命运共同体。专家对中俄两国未来发展前景不断持积极态度，称两国在这场竞赛中将成为未来真正赢家。