商业需求下跌 北京泡沫破裂?

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When Jack Rodman comes to town, it usually means a real estate bubble has burst and Rodman is taking stock of Beijing.

"A hundred percent empty… Empty for two years. PICC is empty. It's a fabulous building but it's empty."

He was in Tokyo during the 90s then Bangkok to Philippines and India, specializing in selling distressed real estate, in other words, deals (that has) gone bad. And in Beijing he says there's plenty.

"I believe from 2007 to 2009 we developed in Beijing alone a hundred million fee of commercial office."

Most developers say about 80% of high-end office space in this city is taken. But Rodman disagrees, and by walking the street, / has a list of 53 buildings which are empty or almost empty. Some were built years ago but haven't opened and so are counted as being vacant.

Part of the problem in the market is being a lack of a clear definition of what we include in the supply and I think that misled a lot of investors and lenders that the market wasn’t grossly overbuilt ,therefore they continued to build.

According to Rodman one reason why many buildings are actually finished but not officially opened is because their owners aren’t prepared to write down their investments. Once it's on the market and if it can’t be leased or only leased at a discount, then that dramatically reduces the building's book value. And many developers may have delayed opening, hoping the economy improves.

"For 2009 we are not projecting a very optimistic scene."

Zhang Xin isn’t one of them. The CEO of SOHO China which builds apartments, malls and office blocks says a market correction has been a long time coming.

When you hear one, everyone's talking about oh, this would go on to, to grow for another ten years, you begin to, to doubt, you know, why would it?

"Why" is rarely asked during the heady days of a construction boom. Only now as building sites fall quiet and prices begin to fall, does anyone wonder how this could have happened in the first place.

John Vause, cnn Beijing.

Vocabulary:

1.       burst: 破裂

2.       high-end: relating to products or services that are more expensive and of better quality than other products of the same type

3.       book value: 帐面价值

4.       heady: very exciting in a way that makes you feel as if you can do anything you want to