欧元区出现经济复苏的迹象

Germany, 2.2% growth, fantastic for the second quarter. Exports led the way. Its number wasn‘t unexpected necessarily. We saw companies like BMW giving us fantastic second quarter results, and so many analysts had expected this. However it is really just the German exports that are leading the way, not domestic demand, so that's one of the issues that still needs to be countered.

We also look at France, 0.6% second quarter growth. Again it’s obviously nowhere near as good as Germany, but much better than France had in the first quarter. Even Spain, as you say, 0.2% in growth, so if that number holds up, these are preliminary of course, if that number holds up, we could be seeing Spain coming out of recession as of the second quarter of this year.

Now let’s also look at the Euro 27, as you said, the fastest growth in four years. A nice solid 1% growth in the second quarter, that’s quarter-on-quarter 1.7% growth as compared to the second quarter of 2009. So, a really healthy number there. We even saw Britain a 1.1% increase. Now what all these numbers mean really is that at least at the second quarter of this year, we did see some solid figures coming through. Manufacturing numbers have been pretty decent, not so much it on the consumer side, so we have to see whether that holds. But Monita, you said very clearly, the question really is: is this just a blip? Many analysts are thinking that it may just be a positive blip with this. The third quarter may be not going to be so hot?

Yes, there are some that, earlier this week, people were talking about the possibility of a double-dip recession, and these numbers, though, I mean, I guess, having to weigh between the positive news and the reality of it all is quite difficult.

Yes, I mean, this would hint not having the double-dip recession again just as one quarter would indicate. However, there are gonna be many people, I don't think, dancing in the street for that. If you were to see this sustainment in Germany, we will be talking about an annualized rate of an 8% growth. Now nobody believes that Germany will be growing by 8% this year. That’s something you would only see in a place like China. Also, again, we are not seeing the domestic demand maybe that we need to see in Germany and elsewhere in Europe in order for people to start spending their money. Of course, many people are worried about unemployment; many people are worried about the austerity packages coming out. So they don't really wanna go out there and maybe buy that new car, and maybe buy the big white goods, because they just don't know they are gonna be out of or keep their job. And let's not forget Greece number, second quarter, down 1.5% for the second quarter. That is Greece. Many of the southern European countries are of course about to face huge austerity packages and more to come, and so we are not expecting to see growth in that region. So you wouldn't be able to say overall that Europe is completely out of recession because you have these very, very mixed messages coming from very different economies.