美国现在需要削减赤字
I think inflation is an issue, but is not go to the global yet. Inflation is absolutely a very issue in an emerging market but still basically is a food price increases and commodity prcie increase, but the whole issue is to try to stop the inflation on the food price issues don't let them expand to general inflation because they're affecting into the supply side.
But if you take, if you take an example of the UK which has rising inflation, you take China which has rising inflation, the U.S. has slow growth at the moment, there is no seeming answer that will assist all parties.
That's very true because there's no-one-fit all policy because everyone is in the different situations. For example, China is very much in the tight monetary policy becasue again the inflation rates but the neutral fiscal polices and the U.S. in the both the loose and accommodating fiscal and monetary policies and UK both in a tight fiscal policy, a little bit neutral montary policy. So the policy recommendation for these three economies can be very different.
Does this make it more challenging than we've ever seen in post recessions?
That's very true because everyone is in the different cycles so then make a global cooperation become ever needed but also very more difficult.
So what's your biggest concern?
I mean, if you're looking forward obviously there's a few downsides. We see quite a strong economy recovery going on last year and going on this year which is good but downsides, risk remains, the one issues on the European sovereign debts. It's a still very volatile market and also on the U.S side we'll see a very much the housing market and very hard employment rates. And we expect to see a rather strong growth rates in the United States but if it came to jobless growth which is also a concern. On the emerging market, we see a sort of starting overheated economy because output gap has closed and inflation pressure is coming on and capital flow is messing so it's a very different situation.
Some quick questions, some quick fire questions. Is it time now for the U.S. to start cutting its deficit, to start actually dealing with it?
U.S. absolutely have to think about his deficits issues, make a crediable immediate fiscal consolidation plan.
So they need to start now?
Need to start now.
Next one. Europe, will the sovereign debt in that crisis, do you believe it is solved? Do you believe it's solved or in 2011 will it burst out again?
The European sovereign crisis is in the proccess. We always say that European need a comprehensive program to solve the whole thing. It's still on the process but we see the whole thing move into the right direction.
But it could blow up again?
Um, that's the tail risk downside but basically we think it's moving in the right direction.
And your... Well, the country that your were the former deputy governor of the bank of China. If we look at the policies, do you expect, this is an unfair question but I ask it anyway, do you expect that there will have to be further rate rises, further tightening in China in 2011.
I think China will have a further tightening fiscal because given the pressure on the inflation expectation, you have to maintain the demand side carefully and will see the rates increase.
- 上一篇
- 下一篇