亚洲市场正在等待转折点

So it's gonna be an exciting week.

I think it could be an interesting week, but we've been seeing at this quite some time in the last few months, we've actually being quite, quite disappointing from an investor’s point of view in Asia. Generally you know we've seen a lot of corrective activity, a lot of markets underperforming. Surprisingly perhaps their western counterparts now for some months I think what we are looking for really is a turning point when the cycle is going to start or the pendulum is going to start swinging the other way. Actually I think this need from China, in a sense, is potentially the catalyst for that. The China market, the China equity markets have been underperforming for a long time. And the main reason for that is really that China has been tightening. The principal determinant of stock market performance in the short term is monetary policy. That's why we've seen this big divergence in Asian markets which generally against environment of monetary tightening now for pretty much the past year or more, whereas US and western markets are still at rock-bottom interest rates and are still engaging in QE. But at some points when the market senses that the tightening is at least coming to an end or at least, there won't be any further tightening in places like China. I think that's the signal that the stock markets are looking forward to start to move ahead again.

So I think that's a clear move, or something positive, but something that slightly worries me, certainly has been worrying me in past weeks and certainly for the week ahead is the oil price and the ongoing instability in the Middle-East and how we quite exposed to it in some ways here in Asia.

Yeah, well, I mean in terms of stocks, you know , the stock picking obviously that, so the oil players are actually doing quite well, so you know you can kind of hedge yourself in that particular way. But you’re right, for the economies as a whole, the oil dependent economies, industrial economies, it's noticeable that places like Korea, again the market has started actually come off underperform relative to what it was doing last year which is actually doing very well on the back of essentially US recovery. But in recent months we've seen, in recent weeks we've seen big creations in places like Korea and Taiwan, whereas markets like Australia have done relatively well because they are resource based. But it's the whole commodity companies, it's not just the oil, I mean, the oil has caught headlines, but if you look at, say, the CRB index, it’s actually on a very strong rising trend at the moment. So that's part of the commodity price inflation plus monetary-driven inflation is a definitely long-term structural concerns of investors, but on a worldwide basis, not particularly in Asia.

If you had to pick one area of Asia this week that's gonna be hot stuff. What would you pick? Where would you pick?

Yeah, I think we are really looking in markets that are probably in the process of bottoming out after these corrections. So I don’t think we are necessarily gonna see a big hot run. But I certainly think that in China, China's stocks listed in Hong Kong, generally the valuations are very reasonable, so I don't think it gets too far around with that right now.

OK, I like that. That’s good. That's a bit of positive hope. I like that. Thank you very much.