中国经济放缓与产能过剩问题

Build it and they will come.

That seems to be the model of cities across China where the economic boom of the past decade has built a lot of empty space. China southwestern city of Chengdu alone is currently building more retail outlets than 86 European cities combined. All this, as growth slows, the result is looking dangerously like a glut. The problem, says developer Pan Min, is that many property companies don’t know how to manage their projects. Her firm is building a 39-story office complex, housing a Hilton hotel.

“It feels like we have a glut, because all the companies are building grade-A offices.

If only the developers and government would plan better for various property needs, there’ll be sufficient demand for all.”

Easy money is one of the main drivers of the commercial property buildup.

As the government limited investment into residential housing to cool prices, people have shifted money to office space, while China’s buildup today is on an uNPRecedented scale, not all cities face the same risks, says Patrick Philips, head of the Urban Land Institute.

--I don’t think it’s to be underestimated that the capacity of the Chinese economy to address challenges like this. But again in certain circumstances, I think the challenge will be very great. And we may need to see solutions we haven’t seen before.

--We does that mean?

--Knocking buildings down.

Developers in places like Chengdu believe Beijing’s policy to encourage more people to move to  cities will help fill up their buildings. But it already looks too late for some places. Property analyst Zhang Peng took us to one empty complex, which he says was designed wrong.

If a building is empty, and you don’t have the people moving in or buying, then the developers will die, they will die in droves.

When that happens, well, this market still have plans willing to invest, it’s really hard to say, because the problems today have accumulated after several years. While China’s property sectors relatively restrain debt levels may help it avoid a US-style collapse, many more ghost towns would be dotting china’s landscape soon.