IMF:中国经济中期增长放缓

The IMF has just released its latest World Economic Outlook report. It says global growth remains in low gear.

Advanced economies, in particular the U.S., are showing signs of pick-up. Meanwhile, emerging-market economies, although still accounting for most global growth, are losing more momentum than previously thought.

The IMF says the global economy is expected to grow 2.9 percent year-over-year in 2013 and 3.6 percent in 2014, revising July estimates down by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively.

As the world's second-largest economy, China has seen slow growth recently, and the Chinese government hasn't taken economic-stimulus measures. In that case, some market analysts have forecast China's growth below 7.5 percent. But the IMF's forecast for China this year is 7.6 percent, moderating slightly to 7.3 percent next year. Rupa Duttagupta, deputy chief with the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF, explains why the IMF believes it's the appropriate pace of growth.

"There is a less of willingness (for the Chinese government) to continue in this growth mode (of stimulus measures) and IMF thinks this is the right approach; and the next step, of course, would be to move more towards a consumption-based growth model for a range of reforms still needed, including expanding the social safety net, moving to more market-determined interest, and relying more on right-pace financing, and so on."

According to the IMF report, two risks were a particular worry to global economic growth. The risks are China's slowing growth and the U.S. Federal Reserve's plan to exit the easy money policy.

It appears increasingly likely that China growth will slow over the medium term than in the recent past. This would specially affect the commodity exporters among the emerging and developing economies. Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, believes that an incomplete economic transition from investment to consumption is one of the reasons China's growth will slow down.

"I think the long hopeful relocation from the investment to consumption has been adopted, but we have seen it slow down, it decreases investment, but not yet increases consumption. I think this is going to take…everybody understands why it's going to take many years, but I should say it again--something has just started. The interaction of the two will take different reforms now in six months, in two years and so on."

Besides the report, the IMF and World Bank will hold their annual meetings this weekend to discuss key issues on the global economy with policy makers around the world.

For CRI, I'm Su Yi.