是过度自信还是实力所在，美联储继续看好美国经济增长

The US economic expansion is set to gain momentum, hardening the arguments for increases in short-term interest rates, Federal Reserve policymakers said at their latest meeting.

美联储(Federal Reserve)的政策制定者们在最近一次会议上表示，美国经济的增长势头将进一步增强，这加强了上调短期利率的理由。

A number of participants in the US central bank’s January 30-31 meeting said they had marked up their growth forecasts since the previous month, encouraged by firm global growth, supportive financial markets and the potential for US tax cuts to boost the economy more than expected. Others said the “upside risks” to growth may have increased, according to minutes of the gathering.

美国央行1月30日至31日会议的多名与会者表示，自上月开始，他们已调高了增长预期，受全球经济强劲增长、金融市场呈现支持态势，以及美国减税措施对经济提振作用可能超出预期的鼓舞。此次会议的纪要显示，另一些人表示，经济增长的“上行风险”可能有所增加。

“A majority of participants noted that a stronger outlook for economic growth raised the likelihood that further gradual policy firming would be appropriate,” according to the record released on Wednesday.

周三公布的会议记录显示，“大多数与会者指出，更强劲的经济增长前景增加了这种可能性，即进一步逐渐收紧政策将是适当的。”

The Fed’s rate-setters reflected the increased arguments for rate rises by changing the language in their post-meeting statement to point to “further” rate rises.

反映支持加息的观点有所增加的是，美联储的利率制定者们在会后的声明中改变了措辞，指出利率会“进一步”提高。

The Fed’s most recent policy meeting was held shortly before the departure of Janet Yellen as chair and the outbreak of market volatility that greeted Jay Powell, her successor, during his first days on the job. Policymakers including Bill Dudley, the New York Fed president, have stressed that the gyrations in the equity market were unlikely to shake the central bank’s plans to continue its gradual programme of rate rises.

美联储的最近一次政策会议是在前主席珍妮特.耶伦(Janet Yellen)卸任前不久举行的，她的继任者杰伊.鲍威尔(Jay Powell)刚刚上任就迎来了市场的动荡。纽约联储主席比尔.达德利(Bill Dudley)等政策制定者强调，股市的波动不太可能动摇央行推进逐渐加息的计划。

While January’s deliberations predated the worst of the market fluctuations, the record suggests that Fed officials have become more confident about the economy since their December meeting, when they last raised interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal funds rate on hold at 1.25 to 1.5 per cent at the January meeting, while laying the ground for another move at the March 20-21 meeting.

虽然1月份的讨论早于市场动荡最激烈之时，但会议纪要似乎表明，自美联储在去年12月会议上加息以来，美联储官员们对经济的信心有所增强。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在1月会议上将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在1.25%到1.5%之间，同时为3月20日至21日会议上再次加息做好了铺垫。

A key question in markets now is whether the Fed could opt to boost rates four times in 2018, rather than the three moves currently forecast. The immediate market response to the minutes suggested they did not significantly advance that debate: the yield on the 10-year Treasury declined modestly and the dollar softened a little, but both moves were muted. Fed funds futures were little changed.

当前市场上的一个关键问题是，美联储会不会选择在2018年四次加息，而不是目前预测的三次？市场对会议纪要的即时回应似乎表明，纪要内容并未显著推进这场辩论：10年期美国国债收益率小幅下降，美元小幅走软，但两项变动都很微小。联邦基金利率期货则几乎没有变化。