关于“特金会”五个值得关注的点

Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet on Tuesday for a landmark summit that the US president hopes will begin a process of denuclearisation in North Korea. Security in Singapore is tight as diplomats, experts and journalists converge on the city-state for the meeting that South Korea’s president has dubbed the “summit of the century”.

特朗普和金正恩将于周二举行一次具有里程碑意义的峰会，美国总统希望这次峰会将开始在朝鲜实现无核化进程。由于外交官，专家和记者聚集在韩国总统称为“世纪之会”的会议上，新加坡的安全局势十分严密。

What is on the agenda?

议程上有什么？

The focus will predominantly be on whether North Korea will abandon its nuclear weapons. If North Korea does not offer a clear pledge on this early in the day, talks could fall apart.

重点将主要放在朝鲜是否会放弃其核武器上。如果朝鲜在当日早些时候没有提供明确承诺，谈判可能会破裂。

US officials had originally hoped the summit would serve as a stage to sign a grand denuclearisation deal, although they have tempered such expectations in recent weeks.

美国官员最初希望这次峰会能够成为签署大规模无核化协议的一个阶段，尽管近几周来他们已经降低了这种期望。

Many think the meeting will now act as a test bed for the personal chemistry between Mr Trump and Mr Kim. Pyongyang, meanwhile, will be seeking concessions from the US, such as the lifting of sanctions, the establishment of diplomatic relations or a potential peace treaty to officially end the Korean war.

许多人认为这次会议将成为特朗普和金正恩个人魅力的试验台。与此同时，平壤将寻求美国的让步，例如取消制裁，建立外交关系或者建立潜在的和平条约，以正式结束朝鲜战争。

Who will make up the delegations?

谁将组成代表团？

The Trump-Kim meeting will initially be one-on-one with only translators present. This approach is a double-edged sword. Both men will quickly get a sense of the other, but talks could quickly fall apart if the chemistry is not right. Other top officials will join later in the day, adding another dimension to the dialogue. John Bolton, Mr Trump’s national security adviser and a Korea hawk, will take part in the expanded session.

特朗普金会议最初将是一对一，只有翻译出席。这种做法是一把双刃剑。两人都很快就会了解对方的情况，但如果两人间化学反应不合，谈判可能会迅速瓦解。其他高级官员将在今天晚些时候加入，为对话增添另一个层面。特朗普的国家安全顾问及朝鲜外交老鹰约翰-博尔顿将参加该扩增的会议环节。

Pyongyang lashed out at Mr Bolton last month after he suggested North Korea should follow the Libyan model of nuclear disarmament (Muammer Gaddafi, the Libyan leader, was later killed by Nato-backed rebels). Mike Pompeo, US secretary of state and lead negotiator on North Korea, will also be present.

博尔顿曾表示朝鲜应该效仿利比亚的核裁军模式（利比亚领导人穆阿迈尔-卡扎菲后来被北约支持的反政府武装杀害），随后平壤在上个月对其进行猛烈抨击。美国国务卿兼朝鲜首席谈判代表麦克-蓬佩奥也将出席会议。

Another to watch is Kim Yo Jong, Mr Kim’s younger sister who represents North Korea’s soft power, or charm efforts.

另一个值得关注的是金与正，金正恩的妹妹，她代表朝鲜的软实力或魅力。

How long will the summit last?

峰会会持续多久？

The White House said the summit would comprise three sessions: the one-to-one meeting between the two leaders, the expanded session with advisers and a working lunch.

白宫表示，峰会将包括三场会议：两位领导人的一对一会议，与顾问的扩大会议和工作午餐。

Media reports have suggested Mr Kim could leave Singapore at 2pm — five hours after the summit begins at 9am. A short meeting would suggest that either diplomats have completed most of the legwork already or the summit is just a starting block for engagement between the two adversaries.

媒体报道称，金正恩可能于下午2点离开新加坡，即上午9点--高峰会开始后5个小时。这场短暂的会议表明，外交官可能已经完成了大部分的协调工作，或者该峰会只是两国对手之间的谈判的起点。

Officials from Washington and Pyongyang were on Monday still discussing what exactly denuclearisation should entail — a crucial issue to settle before the leaders meet. Mr Trump is due to fly out of Singapore at 7pm, after taking questions from the press.

华盛顿和平壤官员周一仍在讨论无核化到底意味着什么--这是两国领导人会面前需要解决的关键问题。在接受媒体提问之后，特朗普将于晚上7点飞离新加坡。

Will we be able to glean anything from the body language?

我们能从肢体语言中看出什么吗？

The US president will be the one to watch. Mr Trump is twice Mr Kim’s age.

在这个方面要看美国总统。特朗普先生的年龄是金正恩先生的两倍。

Will he treat the North Korean leader as an equal or a junior? The US president will also likely be jet-lagged having travelled to Singapore from Canada on Sunday.

他会把朝鲜领导人视为平等还是晚辈？星期天，美国总统也可能会感到时差效应，因为他刚从加拿大飞到新加坡。

This could make him impatient if Mr Kim proves obstinate. Mr Trump has also said he will know “within the first minute” whether Mr Kim is serious about abandoning his nuclear weapons.

如果金正恩很顽固，这可能使他不耐烦。特朗普还表示，他将在“第一分钟内”知道金正恩是否认真愿意放弃核武器。

When in April the North Korean leader met Moon Jae-in, South Korea’s president, the two men embraced like old friends.

4月份，朝鲜领导人与韩国总统文在寅会面时，两个男人像老朋友一样拥抱。

Can this be replicated in Singapore? The US and North Korea have been enemies for 70 years. It will not be easy to put aside decades of animosity.

这可以在新加坡复制吗？美国和朝鲜70年来一直是敌人。放下数十年的仇恨并不容易。

Will this be a one-off affair?

这是一次性事件吗？

That is still to be determined. A second meeting would signal positive personal chemistry between the two leaders and a wish to maintain dialogue.

这还有待确定。如果第二次会议能够产生，即表明两位领导人之间存在积极的个人化学反应，并希望保持对话。

But would Mr Kim be invited to Washington, would Mr Trump be asked to come to Pyongyang, or would the meeting be held in another neutral venue? If, however, the summit fails, some experts fear that the US will revert to discussing a potential military strike on North Korea. Invitations will serve as a clear indication that there are still diplomatic options available.

但是，金正恩会被邀请到华盛顿，或特朗普被邀请去平壤，抑或会在另一个中立场地举行会议？然而，如果该峰会失败了，一些专家担心美国会回到讨论对朝鲜的潜在军事打击。潜在邀请函将能够清楚地表明外交手段仍然可行。