特朗普的敌意帮了欧盟一个大忙

The EU is infected by a “populist leprosy”; its fate hangs in the balance; the cracks in the organisation are widening. These are not the ravings of a deluded Brexiter. On the contrary, they are the views of, respectively, the president of France, the chancellor of Germany and the president of the European Commission.

欧盟感染了“民粹主义麻风病”；如今它命悬一线；欧盟内部的裂缝日益扩大——这些并非出自癫狂的英国退欧派之口的胡话。相反，这些观点分别来自法国总统、德国总理和欧盟委员会主席。

Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker were speaking before last week’s EU summit. The agreement reached there on migration allowed the three leaders to claim modest progress. But there is no doubt that internal pressures on the EU are mounting. With populist and nationalist politicians in power in Italy, Poland, Hungary, Austria and Slovenia, it is becoming harder to form an EU consensus. Further rows on migration, reform of the eurozone and the EU budget are all but guaranteed.

在上周欧盟峰会召开前，埃马纽埃尔马克龙、安格拉默克尔和让-克洛德容克发表了如上观点。该峰会就移民问题达成的协议，使得这三位领导人得以宣称取得了一定进展。但毫无疑问，欧盟内部的压力越来越大。在意大利、波兰、匈牙利、奥地利和斯洛文尼亚由民粹主义和民族主义者掌权的情况下，欧盟越来越难以凝聚共识。几乎可以保证的是，未来欧盟还会在移民、欧元区改革和欧盟预算问题上出现严重分歧。

External pressures are also mounting. Donald Trump’s hostility to the bloc becomes plainer by the day. Last week the US president tweeted that the EU was “set up to take advantage of the US”, a dramatic departure from America’s traditionally supportive attitude. In a couple of weeks’ time, Mr Trump will hold his first summit with another leader with a considerable animus against the EU: Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The EU’s political leaders have reason to watch that meeting with real apprehension.

外部压力也在增加。唐纳德特朗普对欧盟的敌意日益明显。上周，这位美国总统在Twitter上表示，欧盟的“建立就是为了占美国的便宜”——这与美国传统上支持欧盟的态度大相径庭。几周后，特朗普将与另一位对欧盟抱有相当大敌意的领导人举行首次峰会，此人便是俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔普京。欧盟的政治领导人有理由带着真切的恐惧旁观此次会晤。

If Mr Trump follows through on his threat to levy huge tariffs on European cars, the pressures on EU leaders will only increase. Yet, oddly enough, the Trump administration may be doing the bloc a favour. Just at the time that internal tensions are building among the 28 member states, the US is reminding them of the importance of a collective defence of European interests.

如果特朗普兑现对欧洲汽车征收巨额关税的威胁，欧盟领导人所受的压力只会进一步增加。然而诡异的是，恰恰是特朗普政府可能会帮欧盟一个忙。就在欧盟28个成员国之间的内部紧张加剧之际，美国提醒了他们共同捍卫欧洲利益的重要性。

European leaders are intensely aware that America’s EU strategy (as well as China’s and Russia’s) is likely to be an effort to “divide and rule”. With its 28 national governments (soon to be 27) and ponderous governance structure, the EU is a tempting target for such tactics. But, for all their differences, the bloc’s leaders understand the strategic importance of their unity on trade, particularly if a global trade war is indeed in the offing.

欧洲领导人日益意识到，美国的对欧盟战略（以及中国和俄罗斯的对欧盟战略）很可能是“分而治之”。有28个国家的政府（很快就是27个了）需要协调、治理结构笨拙的欧盟，是此类战术的诱人目标。但是，尽管存在分歧，欧盟领导人们明白他们在贸易问题上——特别是在一场全球贸易战确实即将来临的情况下——团结一致的战略重要性。