经济学人下载:奥巴马,可能败选的总统

This time, Mr President, you are playing Goliath
这次，总统阁下，您的对手是巨无霸

In terms of the horse race, an incumbent president (especially if he is without a primary challenger) usually has a head start. While the Republicans spend the next year clobbering each other, Mr Obama can appear statesmanlike and husband his resources. His approval rating is in the 50s, better than Bill Clinton’s at this stage in the proceedings in 1995, before he went on to score a solid victory against Bob Dole in 1996.

以赛马为例，在任的总统（特别是没有主要竞争对手的在任总统）常常会领先一头。在共和党人相互攻击的时候，奥巴马先生将表现其政治家风范并有效利用其资源使出浑身解数。他的支持率在50多左右，比克林顿在1995年处于同样阶段时要好，而克林顿随后在1996年的选举中击败多尔获得连任。

But whereas that Clinton race should encourage Mr Obama, the previous one should worry him. In spring 1991 George Bush senior was coasting towards re-election; by November 1992 the president was toast—and the main reason was a sluggish economy. This recovery, in the wake of the worst financial shock since 1929, is even slower. Growth in the first quarter was a feeble 1.8%. The unemployment rate actually rose, to 9.1%, in May: the rate of job creation is barely keeping track with the natural increase in the working-age population. Twice as many Americans think the country is on the wrong track as the right one. Many of the places where Americans feel angriest are battleground states: Florida, Michigan and Ohio all saw big Republican gains in the 2010 mid-terms.

虽然克林顿的那场战役能鼓励奥巴马，也应使他感到担心。在1991年春天老布什的连任看起来将一帆风顺，第二年11月这位老总统的连任已经看不到任何希望——主要原因就是当时疲软的经济。经过这次自1929年来最严重的金融冲击之后，美国经济的恢复更为缓慢。首季度增长缓慢只有1.8%。 5月份失业率实际上升到9.1%：职位创造率只与劳动年龄人口增长率持平。三分之二的美国人认为国家经济已误入歧途，认为国家经济在正确轨道上的只有三分之一。那些最愤怒的美国人聚集在那些竞争最激烈的几个州：佛罗里达州，密歇根州和俄亥俄州，共和党中期选举时在这几个州都有明显收获。

In 2008 Mr Obama represented change. This time he will have to fend off charges that he is to blame for the achingly slow recovery by arguing that it would have been worse without his actions, such as his $800 billion stimulus package and the takeover of GM and Chrysler. That may be true but it is not easy to sell a counterfactual on the stump (as the first President Bush learned). And there are other holes in Mr Obama’s record. What happened to his promises to do something about the environment or immigration or Guantanamo? Why should any businessman support a chief executive who has let his friends in the labour movement run amok and who let his health-care bill be written by Democrats in Congress? Above all, why has he never produced a credible plan to tackle the budget deficit, currently close to 10% of GDP? Asking these questions will surely give any Republican a perch in this race. But to beat the president, the Republicans need both a credible candidate and credible policies.

2008年，奥巴马代表变化。这次他必须尽力挡开那些将此缓慢而痛苦的经济复苏归咎于他的指责，并主张假如没有他采取的行动——例如他的8千万美元刺激经济计划以及通用和克莱斯勒的收购——情况将会更糟。这或许是真的，但在竞选中向选民推销反事实并不是件容易的事（正如老布什学到的那样）。而奥巴马先生的记录上仍有其他漏洞。他对于改变环境、移民政策或关塔那摩监狱的承诺都怎么样了呢？为什么任何生意人要支持一个让其工人运动中的朋友们放任横行，或者一个借助国会内的民主党人通过其医疗改革计划的行政长官呢？更重要的而是，为什么他从未提出一个可信的计划以解决现今高至GDP10%的财政赤字？问出任何一个这样的问题都将给任何共和党人在此战争中获得一个先手。但是要战胜总统先生，共和党人需要一个可信的候选人和一个可信的政纲。

In terms of talent, the current line-up is not without hope (see article). Jon Huntsman, Tim Pawlenty and Mr Romney have all been first-rate governors: they can claim the sort of hands-on experience of government that Mr Obama so signally lacked in 2008. Mr Romney could get it right this time (seeLexington); or the more charismatic Mr Huntsman could soar. All the same, there are other current and former governors who this newspaper wishes were in the race—notably Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mitch Daniels and Rick Perry. As for Sarah Palin, her antics are helping no one, other than Mr Obama; she should put up, or preferably shut up. Michele Bachmann, a right-wing congresswoman, can carry the tea-party banner.

就人才而言，现有的阵容也并非没有希望（参见此文）。洪博培、普兰提和罗姆尼都曾经是第一流的州长：他们可以声称各种奥巴马先生在2008年参选时显著缺少的实战经验。罗姆尼这次可以好好表现（参见Lexington）;而洪博培若表现更得有号召力他的人气应该能上升。同样的，其他的现任或前任州长都是本刊物希望看到的参赛者——他们分别是杰布??布什、克里斯??克瑞斯蒂、米奇??丹尼尔斯和里克??佩里。至于莎拉??佩林，她的滑稽表演帮不了任何人，除了奥巴马先生；她应该振作，或者干脆闭嘴吧。右翼国会议员米歇尔??巴奇曼可以继续举着茶党的横幅。